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Contact:

Kristina Cahill
Report On Business® Analyst
ISM, ROB Media Relations
Tempe, Arizona
800/888-6276, Ext. 3015
E-mail: kcahill@ism.ws

 

DO NOT CONFUSE THIS NATIONAL REPORT with the various regional purchasing reports released across the country. The national report’s information reflects the entire United States, while the regional reports contain primarily regional data from their local vicinities. Also, the information in the regional reports is not used in calculating the results of the national report.


 

May 2017 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®

PMI® at 54.9%

New Orders, Inventories and Employment Growing
Supplier Deliveries Slowing
Prices Increasing

(Tempe, Arizona) — Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in May, and the overall economy grew for the 96th consecutive month, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Timothy R. Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M., Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: "The May PMI® registered 54.9 percent, an increase of 0.1 percentage point from the April reading of 54.8 percent. The New Orders Index registered 59.5 percent, an increase of 2 percentage points from the April reading of 57.5 percent. The Production Index registered 57.1 percent, a 1.5 percentage points decrease compared to the April reading of 58.6 percent. The Employment Index registered 53.5 percent, an increase of 1.5 percentage points from the April reading of 52 percent. The Inventories Index registered 51.5 percent, an increase of 0.5 percentage point from the April reading of 51 percent. The Prices Index registered 60.5 percent in May, a decrease of 8 percentage points from the April reading of 68.5 percent, indicating higher raw materials prices for the 15th consecutive month, but at a noticeably slower rate of increase in May compared with April. Comments from the panel generally reflect stable to growing business conditions, with new orders, employment and inventories of raw materials all growing in May compared to April. The slowing of pricing pressure, especially in basic commodities, should have a positive impact on margins and buying policies as this moderation moves up the value chain."

Of the 18 manufacturing industries, 15 reported growth in May in the following order: Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Furniture & Related Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Machinery; Primary Metals; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Paper Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Computer & Electronic Products; Transportation Equipment; Chemical Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; and Printing & Related Support Activities. Two industries reported contraction in May compared to April: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; and Textile Mills.

WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING ...

  • "Sales have picked up compared to the last two months. Customer demand has increased." (Plastics & Rubber Products)
  • "Economy is still strong, but [the] political climate can change things very quickly." (Transportation Equipment)
  • "Global price increases for commodities." (Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components)
  • "Business (sales/production) is steady. Pricing pressures on raw materials. Skilled labor in short supply." (Furniture & Related Products)
  • "Agricultural demand very strong." (Chemical Products)
  • "Our business is definitely paying attention to developments with the Canadian lumber tariff announcement. The final outcome could change our fiber pricing." (Paper Products)
  • "OEM longer lead parts possibly longer lead time due to more orders." (Nonmetallic Mineral Products)
  • "Business conditions are steady, and with competition increasing, it's making negotiations even more intense to reduce costs." (Machinery)
  • "Business is booming, and getting direct employees is increasingly difficult." (Fabricated Metal Products)
  • "Difficult to find qualified labor for factory positions." (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products)

MANUFACTURING AT A GLANCE
May 2017



Index
Series
Index
May
Series
Index
Apr
Percentage
Point
Change


Direction
Rate
of
Change

Trend*
(Months)
PMI® 54.9 54.8 +0.1 Growing Faster 9
New Orders 59.5 57.5 +2.0 Growing Faster 9
Production 57.1 58.6 -1.5 Growing Slower 9
Employment 53.5 52.0 +1.5 Growing Faster 8
Supplier Deliveries 53.1 55.1 -2.0 Slowing Slower 13
Inventories 51.5 51.0 +0.5 Growing Faster 2
Customers' Inventories 49.5 45.5 +4.0 Too Low Slower 8
Prices 60.5 68.5 -8.0 Increasing Slower 15
Backlog of Orders 55.0 57.0 -2.0 Growing Slower 4
New Export Orders 57.5 59.5 -2.0 Growing Slower 15
Imports 53.5 55.5 -2.0 Growing Slower 4
OVERALL ECONOMY Growing Faster 96
Manufacturing Sector Growing Faster 9

Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® data is seasonally adjusted for the New Orders, Production, Employment and Supplier Deliveries Indexes.

*Number of months moving in current direction.


 

April 2017 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®

PMI® at 54.8%

New Orders, Production and Employment Growing
Supplier Deliveries Slowing
Inventories Growing

(Tempe, Arizona) — Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in April, and the overall economy grew for the 95th consecutive month, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Bradley J. Holcomb, CPSM, CPSD, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: "The April PMI® registered 54.8 percent, a decrease of 2.4 percentage points from the March reading of 57.2 percent. The New Orders Index registered 57.5 percent, a decrease of 7 percentage points from the March reading of 64.5 percent. The Production Index registered 58.6 percent, 1 percentage point higher than the March reading of 57.6 percent. The Employment Index registered 52 percent, a decrease of 6.9 percentage points from the March reading of 58.9 percent. Inventories of raw materials registered 51 percent, an increase of 2 percentage points from the March reading of 49 percent. The Prices Index registered 68.5 percent in April, a decrease of 2 percentage points from the March reading of 70.5 percent, indicating higher raw materials prices for the 14th consecutive month, but at a slower rate of increase in April compared with March. Comments from the panel generally reflect stable to growing business conditions; with new orders, production, employment and inventories of raw materials all growing in April over March."

Of the 18 manufacturing industries, 16 reported growth in April in the following order: Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Textile Mills; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Furniture & Related Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Machinery; Paper Products; Chemical Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Primary Metals; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Computer & Electronic Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; and Transportation Equipment. The only industry that reported contraction in April compared to March is Apparel, Leather & Allied Products.

WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING ...

  • "For [the] first time in a long time, revenue was up in Q1 year-over-year. Our customers' businesses are starting to show sustained health." (Apparel, Leather & Allied Products)
  • "Seeing increased orders and new projects." (Chemical Products)
  • "Bookings are slow; however, we did receive a very large government order." (Computer & Electronic Products)
  • "Business is definitely improving. Profit margins are increasing." (Fabricated Metal Products)
  • "Ongoing market strength. While world/political headlines cause personal anxiety, business conditions remain solid." (Miscellaneous Manufacturing)
  • "The poultry market continues to be stronger than anticipated." (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products)
  • "Continuing to source more raw materials locally and reduce exposure outside U.S." (Machinery)
  • "Military and government spending is remaining strong. Commercial business has been flat to slightly down." (Transportation Equipment)
  • "Our business and outlook are [strong]. We are seeing price increases from suppliers in many categories." (Plastics & Rubber Products)
  • "Business is solid. Pricing pressures on commodities." (Furniture & Related Products)

MANUFACTURING AT A GLANCE
April 2017



Index

Series
Index
Apr

Series
Index
Mar

Percentage
Point
Change



Direction

Rate
of
Change


Trend*
(Months)

PMI®

54.8

57.2

-2.4

Growing

Slower

8

New Orders

57.5

64.5

-7.0

Growing

Slower

8

Production

58.6

57.6

+1.0

Growing

Faster

8

Employment

52.0

58.9

-6.9

Growing

Slower

7

Supplier Deliveries

55.1

55.9

-0.8

Slowing

Slower

12

Inventories

51.0

49.0

+2.0

Growing

From
Contracting

1

Customers' Inventories

45.5

47.0

-1.5

Too Low

Faster

7

Prices

68.5

70.5

-2.0

Increasing

Slower

14

Backlog of Orders

57.0

57.5

-0.5

Growing

Slower

3

New Export Orders

59.5

59.0

+0.5

Growing

Faster

14

Imports

55.5

53.5

+2.0

Growing

Faster

3

OVERALL ECONOMY

Growing

Slower

95

Manufacturing Sector

Growing

Slower

8

Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® data is seasonally adjusted for the New Orders, Production, Employment and Supplier Deliveries Indexes.

*Number of months moving in current direction.


 

March 2017 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®

PMI® at 57.2%

New Orders, Production and Employment Growing
Supplier Deliveries Slowing
Inventories Contracting

(Tempe, Arizona) — Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in March, and the overall economy grew for the 94th consecutive month, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Bradley J. Holcomb, CPSM, CPSD, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: "The March PMI® registered 57.2 percent, a decrease of 0.5 percentage point from the February reading of 57.7 percent. The New Orders Index registered 64.5 percent, a decrease of 0.6 percentage point from the February reading of 65.1 percent. The Production Index registered 57.6 percent, 5.3 percentage points lower than the February reading of 62.9 percent. The Employment Index registered 58.9 percent, an increase of 4.7 percentage points from the February reading of 54.2 percent. Inventories of raw materials registered 49 percent, a decrease of 2.5 percentage points from the February reading of 51.5 percent. The Prices Index registered 70.5 percent in March, an increase of 2.5 percentage points from the February reading of 68 percent, indicating higher raw materials prices for the 13th consecutive month. Consistent with generally positive comments from the panel, all 18 industries reported growth in new orders for the month of March."

Of the 18 manufacturing industries, 17 reported growth in March in the following order: Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Printing & Related Support Activities; Furniture & Related Products; Textile Mills; Machinery; Primary Metals; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Wood Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Paper Products; Transportation Equipment; Chemical Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Fabricated Metal Products; and Petroleum & Coal Products. No industry reported contraction in March compared to February.

WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING ...

  • "Business conditions continue to improve." (Chemical Products)
  • "Business outlook is positive." (Computer & Electronic Products)
  • "Regional business is strong. Hiring qualified team members has improved." (Fabricated Metal Products)
  • "We had a lot of storm orders, so it really pushed our sales up this month." (Miscellaneous Manufacturing)
  • "Starting to see some prices creeping up. We are raising our sales prices as well." (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products)
  • "Business up 10-15 percent." (Machinery)
  • "Industry outlook is looking relatively flat currently, and the view for calendar year 2017 looks to be flat as well. Job market has been very good in the region, and finding talent has been challenging." (Transportation Equipment)
  • "Overall, material inflation is now clearly upon us." (Paper Products)
  • "Business is strong and looking up." (Furniture & Related Products)
  • "Opportunities for new business seem more abundant now. Orders and RFQs increasing." (Nonmetallic Mineral Products)

MANUFACTURING AT A GLANCE
March 2017



Index

Series
Index
Mar

Series
Index
Feb

Percentage
Point
Change



Direction

Rate
of
Change


Trend*
(Months)

PMI®

57.2

57.7

-0.5

Growing

Slower

7

New Orders

64.5

65.1

-0.6

Growing

Slower

7

Production

57.6

62.9

-5.3

Growing

Slower

7

Employment

58.9

54.2

+4.7

Growing

Faster

6

Supplier Deliveries

55.9

54.8

+1.1

Slowing

Faster

11

Inventories

49.0

51.5

-2.5

Contracting

From
Growing

1

Customers' Inventories

47.0

47.5

-0.5

Too Low

Faster

6

Prices

70.5

68.0

+2.5

Increasing

Faster

13

Backlog of Orders

57.5

57.0

+0.5

Growing

Faster

2

New Export Orders

59.0

55.0

+4.0

Growing

Faster

13

Imports

53.5

54.0

-0.5

Growing

Slower

2

OVERALL ECONOMY

Growing

Slower

94

Manufacturing Sector

Growing

Slower

7

Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® data is seasonally adjusted for the New Orders, Production, Employment and Supplier Deliveries Indexes.

*Number of months moving in current direction.


 

February 2017 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®

PMI® at 57.7%
New Orders, Production and Employment Growing
Supplier Deliveries Slowing
Inventories Growing

(Tempe, Arizona) — Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in February, and the overall economy grew for the 93rd consecutive month, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Bradley J. Holcomb, CPSM, CPSD, chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: “The February PMI® registered 57.7 percent, an increase of 1.7 percentage points from the January reading of 56 percent. The New Orders Index registered 65.1 percent, an increase of 4.7 percentage points from the January reading of 60.4 percent. The Production Index registered 62.9 percent, 1.5 percentage points higher than the January reading of 61.4 percent. The Employment Index registered 54.2 percent, a decrease of 1.9 percentage points from the January reading of 56.1 percent. Inventories of raw materials registered 51.5 percent, an increase of 3 percentage points from the January reading of 48.5 percent. The Prices Index registered 68 percent in February, a decrease of 1 percentage point from the January reading of 69 percent, indicating higher raw materials prices for the 12th consecutive month. Comments from the panel largely indicate strong sales and demand, and reflect a positive view of business conditions with a watchful eye on commodities and the potential for inflation.”

Of the 18 manufacturing industries, 17 reported growth in February in the following order: Textile Mills; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Machinery; Computer & Electronic Products; Primary Metals; Plastics & Rubber Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Chemical Products; Paper Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Transportation Equipment; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Wood Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Printing & Related Support Activities; Petroleum & Coal Products; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing. The only industry reporting contraction in February is Furniture & Related Products.

WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING …

  • “Business [is] improving and lead times are extending by two or more weeks.” (Chemical Products)
  • “Very positive outlook for this quarter. Production goals have been adjusted multiple times and increased each time due to demand.” (Computer & Electronic Products)
  • “Product demand continues to be solid.” (Plastics & Rubber Products)
  • “Bookings are heavy early in the season. Expect robust first half of the year.” (Primary Metals)
  • “Demand still outstrips capacity. Competitors have announced heavy capital investments to increase capacity.” (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products)
  • “Sales and business continue to be strong and increasing.” (Machinery)
  • “Business holding steady in Q1.” (Transportation Equipment)
  • “Medical device manufacturing is still strong.” (Miscellaneous Manufacturing)
  • “Even though oil and gas prices are on the upswing, we still face a tough 2017 and will continue to save on costs.” (Petroleum & Coal Products)
  • “Major focus on commodities and potential [for] further inflation.” (Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components)

MANUFACTURING AT A GLANCE
February 2017

Index

Series Index

Feb

Series Index

Jan

Percentage

Point

Change

Direction

Rate of Change

Trend* (Months)

PMI®

57.7

56.0

+1.7

Growing

Faster

6

New Orders

65.1

60.4

+4.7

Growing

Faster

6

Production

62.9

61.4

+1.5

Growing

Faster

6

Employment

54.2

56.1

-1.9

Growing

Slower

5

Supplier Deliveries

54.8

53.6

+1.2

Slowing

Faster

10

Inventories

51.5

48.5

+3.0

Growing

From Contracting

1

Customers’ Inventories

47.5

48.5

-1.0

Too Low

Faster

5

Prices

68.0

69.0

-1.0

Increasing

Slower

12

Backlog of Orders

57.0

49.5

+7.5

Growing

From Contracting

1

New Export Orders

55.0

54.5

+0.5

Growing

Faster

12

Imports

54.0

50.0

+4.0

Growing

From Unchanged

1

OVERALL ECONOMY

Manufacturing Sector

Growing

Faster

93

Growing

Faster

6

Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® data is seasonally adjusted for the New Orders, Production, Employment and Supplier Deliveries Indexes.

*Number of months moving in current direction.


 

January 2017 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®

PMI® at 56%
New Orders, Production and Employment Growing
Inventories Contracting
Supplier Deliveries Slowing

(Tempe, Arizona) — Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in January, and the overall economy grew for the 92nd consecutive month, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Bradley J. Holcomb, CPSM, CPSD, chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee; “The January PMI® registered 56 percent, an increase of 1.5 percentage points from the seasonally adjusted December reading of 54.5 percent. The New Orders Index registered 60.4 percent, an increase of 0.1 percentage point from the seasonally adjusted December reading of 60.3 percent. The Production Index registered 61.4 percent, 2 percentage points higher than the seasonally adjusted December reading of 59.4 percent. The Employment Index registered 56.1 percent, an increase of 3.3 percentage points from the seasonally adjusted December reading of 52.8 percent. Inventories of raw materials registered 48.5 percent, an increase of 1.5 percentage points from the December reading of 47 percent. The Prices Index registered 69 percent in January, an increase of 3.5 percentage points from the December reading of 65.5 percent, indicating higher raw materials prices for the 11th consecutive month. The PMI®, New Orders, and Production Indexes all registered their highest levels since November of 2014, and comments from the panel are generally positive regarding demand levels and business conditions.”

Of the 18 manufacturing industries, 12 reported growth in January in the following order: Plastics & Rubber Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Paper Products; Chemical Products; Transportation Equipment; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Machinery; Petroleum & Coal Products; Primary Metals; Fabricated Metal Products; and Computer & Electronic Products. The five industries reporting contraction in January are: Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Wood Products; Furniture & Related Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; and Printing & Related Support Activities.

WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING …

  • “Demand very steady to start the year.” (Chemical Products)
  • “January revenue target slightly lower following a big December shipment month.” (Computer & Electronic Products)
  • “Strong start to the new year. Production is increasing and we are adding capacity.” (Plastics & Rubber Products)
  • “Business looks stronger moving into the first quarter of 2017.” (Primary Metals)
  • “Economic outlook remains stable and no current effects of geopolitical changes appear to be penetrating market conditions.” (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products)
  • “Sales bookings are exceeding expectations. We are starting to see supply shortages in hot rolled steel due to the curtailment of imports.” (Machinery)
  • “Year starting on pace with Q4 2016.” (Transportation Equipment)
  • “Business conditions are good, demand is generally increasing.” (Miscellaneous Manufacturing)
  • “Conditions and outlook remain positive. Raw material prices are stable resulting in stable margins. Asset utilization remains high.” (Petroleum & Coal Products)
  • “Steady demand from automotive.” (Fabricated Metal Products)

MANUFACTURING AT A GLANCE
January 2017

Index

Series Index

Jan

Series Index

Dec

Percentage

Point

Change

Direction

Rate of Change

Trend* (Months)

PMI®

56.0

54.5

+1.5

Growing

Faster

5

New Orders

60.4

60.3

+0.1

Growing

Faster

5

Production

61.4

59.4

+2.0

Growing

Faster

5

Employment

56.1

52.8

+3.3

Growing

Faster

4

Supplier Deliveries

53.6

53.0

+0.6

Slowing

Faster

9

Inventories

48.5

47.0

+1.5

Contracting

Slower

19

Customers’ Inventories

48.5

49.0

-0.5

Too Low

Faster

4

Prices

69.0

65.5

+3.5

Increasing

Faster

11

Backlog of Orders

49.5

49.0

+0.5

Contracting

Slower

7

New Export Orders

54.5

56.0

-1.5

Growing

Slower

11

Imports

50.0

50.5

-0.5

Unchanged

From Growing

1

OVERALL ECONOMY

Manufacturing Sector

Growing

Faster

92

Growing

Faster

5

Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® data is seasonally adjusted for the New Orders, Production, Employment and Supplier Deliveries Indexes.

*Number of months moving in current direction.

Indexes reflect newly released seasonal adjustment factors.


 

December 2016 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®

PMI® at 54.7%

New Orders, Production and Employment Growing
Inventories Contracting
Supplier Deliveries Slowing

(Tempe, Arizona) — Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in December, and the overall economy grew for the 91st consecutive month, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Bradley J. Holcomb, CPSM, CPSD, chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. “The December PMI® registered 54.7 percent, an increase of 1.5 percentage points from the November reading of 53.2 percent. The New Orders Index registered 60.2 percent, an increase of 7.2 percentage points from the November reading of 53 percent. The Production Index registered 60.3 percent, 4.3 percentage points higher than the November reading of 56 percent. The Employment Index registered 53.1 percent, an increase of 0.8 percentage point from the November reading of 52.3 percent. Inventories of raw materials registered 47 percent, a decrease of 2 percentage points from the November reading of 49 percent. The Prices Index registered 65.5 percent in December, an increase of 11 percentage points from the November reading of 54.5 percent, indicating higher raw materials prices for the 10th consecutive month. The PMI®, New Orders, Production and Employment Indexes all registered new highs for the year 2016, and the forward-looking comments from the panel are largely positive.”

Of the 18 manufacturing industries, 11 are reporting growth in December in the following order: Petroleum & Coal Products; Primary Metals; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Paper Products; Machinery; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Computer & Electronic Products; Fabricated Metal Products; and Chemical Products. The six industries reporting contraction in December — listed in order — are: Plastics & Rubber Products; Furniture & Related Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Textile Mills; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; and Transportation Equipment.

WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING …

  • “Ramping up for year-end by reducing inventory.” (Chemical Products)
  • “Very strong month in terms of booking and billing which will contribute to a good overall year revenue-wise.” (Computer & Electronic Products)
  • “Our business remains strong and we are seeing continued growth.” (Plastics & Rubber Products)
  • “We have been fairly steady the last few months and it appears business is strong into the 1st quarter of next year.” (Primary Metals)
  • “Moving into [a] more inflationary environment, with lots of pressure to increase prices on a number of fronts.” (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products)
  • “Business continues to be brisk with an uptick of RFQs. Customers are earmarking funds for capital equipment upgrades.” (Machinery)
  • “Hiring still tight on available local labor. Business, by segments, still uneven. Some consumer markets very (seasonally) strong, but industrial markets lagging.” (Transportation Equipment)
  • “Business conditions are good, demand is growing.” (Miscellaneous Manufacturing)
  • “Continued strong demand for product and strong forecast for next year.” (Nonmetallic Mineral Products)
  • “December 2016 is way ahead of December 2015.” (Fabricated Metal Products)

MANUFACTURING AT A GLANCE
December 2016

Index

Series Index

Dec

Series Index

Nov

Percentage

Point

Change

Direction

Rate of Change

Trend* (Months)

PMI®

54.7

53.2

+1.5

Growing

Faster

4

New Orders

60.2

53.0

+7.2

Growing

Faster

4

Production

60.3

56.0

+4.3

Growing

Faster

4

Employment

53.1

52.3

+0.8

Growing

Faster

3

Supplier Deliveries

52.9

55.7

-2.8

Slowing

Slower

8

Inventories

47.0

49.0

-2.0

Contracting

Faster

18

Customers’ Inventories

49.0

49.0

0.0

Too Low

Same

3

Prices

65.5

54.5

+11.0

Increasing

Faster

10

Backlog of Orders

49.0

49.0

0.0

Contracting

Same

6

New Export Orders

56.0

52.0

+4.0

Growing

Faster

10

Imports

50.5

50.5

0.0

Growing

Same

3

OVERALL ECONOMY

Manufacturing Sector

Growing

Faster

91

Growing

Faster

4

Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® data is seasonally adjusted for the New Orders, Production, Employment and Supplier Deliveries Indexes.

*Number of months moving in current direction.


 

November 2016 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®

PMI® at 53.2%

New Orders, Production and Employment Growing
Inventories Contracting
Supplier Deliveries Slowing

(Tempe, Arizona) — Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in November, and the overall economy grew for the 90th consecutive month, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Bradley J. Holcomb, CPSM, CPSD, chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. "The November PMI® registered 53.2 percent, an increase of 1.3 percentage points from the October reading of 51.9 percent. The New Orders Index registered 53 percent, an increase of 0.9 percentage point from the October reading of 52.1 percent. The Production Index registered 56 percent, 1.4 percentage points higher than the October reading of 54.6 percent. The Employment Index registered 52.3 percent, a decrease of 0.6 percentage point from the October reading of 52.9 percent. Inventories of raw materials registered 49 percent, an increase of 1.5 percentage points from the October reading of 47.5 percent. The Prices Index registered 54.5 percent in November, the same reading as in October, indicating higher raw materials prices for the ninth consecutive month. Comments from the panel cite increasing demand, some tightness in the labor market and plans to reduce inventory by the end of the year."

Of the 18 manufacturing industries, 11 are reporting growth in November in the following order: Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Petroleum & Coal Products; Paper Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Chemical Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Machinery; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; and Primary Metals. The six industries reporting contraction in November — listed in order — are: Printing & Related Support Activities; Wood Products; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Transportation Equipment; and Furniture & Related Products.

WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING ...

  • "Raw materials have been rather flat. Ramping up for year-end and reducing inventory is main supply chain goal at this time." (Chemical Products)
  • "Strong manufacturing numbers in anticipation of strong year-end bookings." (Computer & Electronic Products)
  • "Business is still steady. We are foregoing our shutdown over Christmas break due to an increase in customer orders." (Plastics & Rubber Products)
  • "Heading into 2017, our business levels look pretty consistent compared to 2016." (Primary Metals)
  • "Sector remains strong, orders and forecasts are consistent and demand outlook is positive." (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products)
  • "New spec buildings going up in our area. Local companies adding additional production space which equates to higher employment." (Machinery)
  • "Business conditions are good. Labor market is tightening such that it is difficult to staff to completely fulfill production demand." (Miscellaneous Manufacturing)
  • "We are seeing an upswing in customer Requests for Quotations this month; this is a positive sign for our business." (Textile Mills)
  • "Continued strong seasonal demand for product." (Nonmetallic Mineral Products)
  • "2017 is looking to be a very busy year." (Fabricated Metal Products)

MANUFACTURING AT A GLANCE
November 2016



Index
Series
Index
Nov
Series
Index
Oct
Percentage
Point
Change


Direction
Rate
of
Change

Trend*
(Months)
PMI® 53.2 51.9 +1.3 Growing Faster 3
New Orders 53.0 52.1 +0.9 Growing Faster 3
Production 56.0 54.6 +1.4 Growing Faster 3
Employment 52.3 52.9 -0.6 Growing Slower 2
Supplier Deliveries 55.7 52.2 +3.5 Slowing Faster 7
Inventories 49.0 47.5 +1.5 Contracting Slower 17
Customers' Inventories 49.0 49.5 -0.5 Too Low Faster 2
Prices 54.5 54.5 0.0 Increasing Same 9
Backlog of Orders 49.0 45.5 +3.5 Contracting Slower 5
New Export Orders 52.0 52.5 -0.5 Growing Slower 9
Imports 50.5 52.0 -1.5 Growing Slower 2
OVERALL ECONOMY Growing Faster 90
Manufacturing Sector Growing Faster 3

Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® data is seasonally adjusted for the New Orders, Production, Employment and Supplier Deliveries Indexes.

*Number of months moving in current direction.


 

October 2016 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®

PMI® at 51.9%

New Orders, Production and Employment Growing
Inventories Contracting
Supplier Deliveries Slowing

(Tempe, Arizona) — Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in October, and the overall economy grew for the 89th consecutive month, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Bradley J. Holcomb, CPSM, CPSD, chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. "The October PMI® registered 51.9 percent, an increase of 0.4 percentage point from the September reading of 51.5 percent. The New Orders Index registered 52.1 percent, a decrease of 3 percentage points from the September reading of 55.1 percent. The Production Index registered 54.6 percent, 1.8 percentage points higher than the September reading of 52.8 percent. The Employment Index registered 52.9 percent, an increase of 3.2 percentage points from the September reading of 49.7 percent. Inventories of raw materials registered 47.5 percent, a decrease of 2 percentage points from the September reading of 49.5 percent. The Prices Index registered 54.5 percent in October, an increase of 1.5 percentage points from the September reading of 53 percent, indicating higher raw materials prices for the eighth consecutive month. Comments from the panel are largely positive citing a favorable economy and steady sales, with some exceptions."

SPECIAL QUESTION

For inclusion in this report, our panel responded to a special question regarding the Hanjin Shipping Company bankruptcy to gain insights into the impact on their businesses this quarter. The responses were as follows:

  • Not impacted — 51.9%
  • Small, not material impact — 29.7%
  • Material, but manageable impact — 13.4%
  • Large material impact — 0.8%
  • Unsure — 4.2%

Of the 18 manufacturing industries, 10 are reporting growth in October in the following order: Textile Mills; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Furniture & Related Products; Paper Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Petroleum & Coal Products; and Chemical Products. The eight industries reporting contraction in October — listed in order — are: Wood Products; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Primary Metals; Plastics & Rubber Products; Transportation Equipment; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Fabricated Metal Products; and Machinery.

WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING ...

  • "Domestic business steady. Export business trending higher." (Chemical Products)
  • "Very favorable outlook in the market." (Computer & Electronic Products)
  • "We are looking at a considerable slowdown for October and November. Production is down 20 percent." (Primary Metals)
  • "Business is much better." (Fabricated Metal Products)
  • "Strong economy driving steady sales." (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products)
  • "Due to the hurricane and other storms, our business is up significantly." (Machinery)
  • "Ongoing strength seen in 2016 — it’s a good year." (Miscellaneous Manufacturing)
  • "Customers continue to press price reductions." (Transportation Equipment)
  • "Our business remains strong." (Plastics & Rubber Products)
  • "Hard to predict oil price dynamics, but there seems to be a consensus that the market is stabilizing, at least above USD 50 bbl this month." (Petroleum & Coal Products)

MANUFACTURING AT A GLANCE
October 2016



Index
Series
Index
Oct
Series
Index
Sep
Percentage
Point
Change


Direction
Rate
of
Change

Trend*
(Months)
PMI® 51.9 51.5 +0.4 Growing Faster 2
New Orders 52.1 55.1 -3.0 Growing Slower 2
Production 54.6 52.8 +1.8 Growing Faster 2
Employment 52.9 49.7 +3.2 Growing From Contracting 1
Supplier Deliveries 52.2 50.3 +1.9 Slowing Faster 6
Inventories 47.5 49.5 -2.0 Contracting Faster 16
Customers' Inventories 49.5 53.0 -3.5 Too Low From Too High 1
Prices 54.5 53.0 +1.5 Increasing Faster 8
Backlog of Orders 45.5 49.5 -4.0 Contracting Faster 4
New Export Orders 52.5 52.0 +0.5 Growing Faster 8
Imports 52.0 49.0 +3.0 Growing From Contracting 1
OVERALL ECONOMY Growing Faster 89
Manufacturing Sector Growing Faster 2

Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® data is seasonally adjusted for the New Orders, Production, Employment and Supplier Deliveries Indexes.

*Number of months moving in current direction.


 

September 2016 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®

PMI® at 51.5%

New Orders and Production Growing
Employment and Inventories Contracting
Supplier Deliveries Slowing

(Tempe, Arizona) — Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in September following one month of contraction in August, and the overall economy grew for the 88th consecutive month, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Bradley J. Holcomb, CPSM, CPSD, chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. "The September PMI® registered 51.5 percent, an increase of 2.1 percentage points from the August reading of 49.4 percent. The New Orders Index registered 55.1 percent, an increase of 6 percentage points from the August reading of 49.1 percent. The Production Index registered 52.8 percent, 3.2 percentage points higher than the August reading of 49.6 percent. The Employment Index registered 49.7 percent, an increase of 1.4 percentage points from the August reading of 48.3 percent. Inventories of raw materials registered 49.5 percent, an increase of 0.5 percentage point from the August reading of 49 percent. The Prices Index registered 53 percent in September, the same reading as in August, indicating higher raw materials prices for the seventh consecutive month. Manufacturing expanded in September following one month of contraction in August, with nine of the 18 industries reporting an increase in new orders in September (up from six in August), and 10 of the 18 industries reporting an increase in production in September (up from eight in August)."

Of the 18 manufacturing industries, seven are reporting growth in September in the following order: Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Furniture & Related Products; Textile Mills; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; and Paper Products. The 11 industries reporting contraction in September — listed in order — are: Printing & Related Support Activities; Petroleum & Coal Products; Wood Products; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Transportation Equipment; Machinery; Plastics & Rubber Products; Primary Metals; Fabricated Metal Products; Chemical Products; and Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components.

WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING ...

  • "Domestic and international sales moving up slightly." (Chemical Products)
  • "Negotiating prices down on all metals." (Computer & Electronic Products)
  • "Business is still strong, but we are seeing some pushouts from certain consumer market products." (Primary Metals)
  • "Sales on the increase and positive outlook for the remainder of 2016." (Fabricated Metal Products)
  • "Good growing conditions for this year’s corn and soybean crop has the protein market anticipating large supplies and lower cost of goods for 2017." (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products)
  • "General business conditions are slowly improving with increased sales and sales leads." (Machinery)
  • "Furniture sales are increasing." (Furniture & Related Products)
  • "Some concern about fallout from the Hanjin Shipping bankruptcy. Spending time tracking containers — alternatives. Also, predicated on the impact to worldwide rates, there is some concern around both capacity and ocean rates in the near — to midterm future." (Transportation Equipment)
  • "Demand increase after previous lackluster month. Some pre-buying activity underway by customers in advance of expected price increases." (Plastics & Rubber Products)
  • "Oil prices have increased with respect to the first quarter but they remain at low levels affecting our revenue and purchasing power." (Petroleum & Coal Products)

MANUFACTURING AT A GLANCE
September 2016



Index

Series
Index
Sep

Series
Index
Aug

Percentage
Point
Change



Direction

Rate
of
Change


Trend*
(Months)

PMI®

51.5

49.4

+2.1

Growing

From Contracting

1

New Orders

55.1

49.1

+6.0

Growing

From Contracting

1

Production

52.8

49.6

+3.2

Growing

From Contracting

1

Employment

49.7

48.3

+1.4

Contracting

Slower

3

Supplier Deliveries

50.3

50.9

-0.6

Slowing

Slower

5

Inventories

49.5

49.0

+0.5

Contracting

Slower

15

Customers' Inventories

53.0

49.5

+3.5

Too High

From Too Low

1

Prices

53.0

53.0

0.0

Increasing

Same

7

Backlog of Orders

49.5

45.5

+4.0

Contracting

Slower

3

New Export Orders

52.0

52.5

-0.5

Growing

Slower

7

Imports

49.0

47.0

+2.0

Contracting

Slower

2

OVERALL ECONOMY

Growing

Faster

88

Manufacturing Sector

Growing

From Contracting

1

Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® data is seasonally adjusted for the New Orders, Production, Employment and Supplier Deliveries Indexes.

*Number of months moving in current direction.


 

August 2016 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®

PMI® at 49.4%

New Orders, Production and Employment Contracting
Inventories Contracting
Supplier Deliveries Slowing

(Tempe, Arizona) — Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in August following five consecutive months of expansion, while the overall economy grew for the 87th consecutive month, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Bradley J. Holcomb, CPSM, CPSD, chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. "The August PMI® registered 49.4 percent, a decrease of 3.2 percentage points from the July reading of 52.6 percent. The New Orders Index registered 49.1 percent, a decrease of 7.8 percentage points from the July reading of 56.9 percent. The Production Index registered 49.6 percent, 5.8 percentage points lower than the July reading of 55.4 percent. The Employment Index registered 48.3 percent, a decrease of 1.1 percentage points from the July reading of 49.4 percent. Inventories of raw materials registered 49 percent, a decrease of 0.5 percentage point from the July reading of 49.5 percent. The Prices Index registered 53 percent, a decrease of 2 percentage points from the July reading of 55 percent, indicating higher raw materials prices for the sixth consecutive month. Manufacturing contracted in August for the first time since February of this year, as only six of our 18 industries reported an increase in new orders in August (down from 12 in July), and only eight of our 18 industries reported an increase in production in August (down from nine in July)."

Of the 18 manufacturing industries, six are reporting growth in August in the following order: Printing & Related Support Activities; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Chemical Products. The 11 industries reporting contraction in August — listed in order — are: Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Furniture & Related Products; Transportation Equipment; Machinery; Textile Mills; Paper Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Primary Metals; and Fabricated Metal Products.

WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING ...

  • "We have been getting lots of inquiries, but not a lot of sales order placements." (Chemical Products)
  • "Business was flat this month overall." (Computer & Electronic Products)
  • "Continued strong market demand for our products related to construction." (Nonmetallic Mineral Products)
  • "Commercial construction continues to be strong, and therefore our business is very good." (Fabricated Metal Products)
  • "New product distribution is increasing." (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products)
  • "This past month, sales increased over the trend from the first half of the year. There seems to be a general, albeit slight, loosening of capital purse strings." (Machinery)
  • "Medical device is still strong." (Miscellaneous Manufacturing)
  • "Business conditions are generally flat." (Transportation Equipment)
  • "Hard to find production associates. Unemployment in the area is around 4 percent. Can’t get enough employees [which] leads to lots of overtime." (Plastics & Rubber Products)
  • "Oil prices continue to seek a ‘footing’; rig count slowly increasing." (Petroleum & Coal Products)

MANUFACTURING AT A GLANCE
August 2016



Index
Series
Index
Aug
Series
Index
Jul
Percentage
Point
Change


Direction
Rate
of
Change

Trend*
(Months)
PMI® 49.4 52.6 -3.2 Contracting From Growing 1
New Orders 49.1 56.9 -7.8 Contracting From Growing 1
Production 49.6 55.4 -5.8 Contracting From Growing 1
Employment 48.3 49.4 -1.1 Contracting Faster 2
Supplier Deliveries 50.9 51.8 -0.9 Slowing Slower 4
Inventories 49.0 49.5 -0.5 Contracting Faster 14
Customers' Inventories 49.5 51.0 -1.5 Too Low From Too High 1
Prices 53.0 55.0 -2.0 Increasing Slower 6
Backlog of Orders 45.5 48.0 -2.5 Contracting Faster 2
New Export Orders 52.5 52.5 0.0 Growing Same 6
Imports 47.0 52.0 -5.0 Contracting From Growing 1
OVERALL ECONOMY Growing Slower 87
Manufacturing Sector Contracting From Growing 1

Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® data is seasonally adjusted for New Orders, Production, Employment and Supplier Deliveries indexes.

*Number of months moving in current direction.


 

July 2016 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®

PMI® at 52.6%

New Orders and Production Growing
Employment and Inventories Contracting
Supplier Deliveries Slowing

(Tempe, Arizona) — Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in July for the fifth consecutive month, while the overall economy grew for the 86th consecutive month, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Bradley J. Holcomb, CPSM, CPSD, chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. "The July PMI® registered 52.6 percent, a decrease of 0.6 percentage point from the June reading of 53.2 percent. The New Orders Index registered 56.9 percent, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the June reading of 57 percent. The Production Index registered 55.4 percent, 0.7 percentage point higher than the June reading of 54.7 percent. The Employment Index registered 49.4 percent, a decrease of 1 percentage point from the June reading of 50.4 percent. Inventories of raw materials registered 49.5 percent, an increase of 1 percentage point from the June reading of 48.5 percent. The Prices Index registered 55 percent, a decrease of 5.5 percentage points from the June reading of 60.5 percent, indicating higher raw materials prices for the fifth consecutive month. Manufacturing registered growth in July for the fifth consecutive month, as 12 of our 18 industries reported an increase in new orders in July (same as in June), and nine of our 18 industries reported an increase in production in July (down from 12 in June)."

Of the 18 manufacturing industries, 11 are reporting growth in July in the following order: Textile Mills; Printing & Related Support Activities; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Wood Products; Furniture & Related Products; Chemical Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; and Computer & Electronic Products. The seven industries reporting contraction in July — listed in order — are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Plastics & Rubber Products; Machinery; Primary Metals; Transportation Equipment; and Paper Products.

WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING ...

  • "With Brexit, keeping [a] close eye on how this will impact our business." (Chemical Products)
  • "Stronger than expected end to Q2 (June) saw us beat our forecast which is the first time in five quarters, though we were still below Annual Operation Plan (AOP)." (Computer & Electronic Products)
  • "Strong demand in our market has business in an upswing." (Nonmetallic Mineral Products)
  • "International capital orders are increasing." (Fabricated Metal Products)
  • "Brexit has not impacted our business thus far." (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products)
  • "Retail sales have really slowed in the last 45 days. Our industry is seeing it everywhere. Steel prices are rising." (Machinery)
  • "Seems to be a bit more optimism in the markets. But, U.S. Presidential race might dampen the mood." (Plastics & Rubber Products)
  • "Demand and industry production are both slowing down." (Transportation Equipment)
  • "Oversupply continues to dominate demand. Poor weather is having a negative impact on building, creating short term slow demand." (Wood Products)
  • "Oil and gas industry sector continues to realign staff to reflect $40-$50/barrel oil. This price range is seen as the new normal for the foreseeable future." (Petroleum & Coal Products)

MANUFACTURING AT A GLANCE
JULY 2016



Index

Series
Index
Jul

Series
Index
Jun

Percentage
Point
Change



Direction

Rate
of
Change


Trend*
(Months)

PMI®

52.6

53.2

-0.6

Growing

Slower

5

New Orders

56.9

57.0

-0.1

Growing

Slower

7

Production

55.4

54.7

+0.7

Growing

Faster

7

Employment

49.4

50.4

-1.0

Contracting

From Growing

1

Supplier Deliveries

51.8

55.4

-3.6

Slowing

Slower

3

Inventories

49.5

48.5

+1.0

Contracting

Slower

13

Customers' Inventories

51.0

51.0

0.0

Too High

Same

2

Prices

55.0

60.5

-5.5

Increasing

Slower

5

Backlog of Orders

48.0

52.5

-4.5

Contracting

From Growing

1

New Export Orders

52.5

53.5

-1.0

Growing

Slower

5

Imports

52.0

52.0

0.0

Growing

Same

2

OVERALL ECONOMY

Growing

Slower

86

Manufacturing Sector

Growing

Slower

5

Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® data is seasonally adjusted for New Orders, Production, Employment and Supplier Deliveries indexes.

*Number of months moving in current direction.


June 2016 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business

PMI® at 53.2%

New Orders, Production and Employment Growing
Inventories Contracting
Supplier Deliveries Slower

(Tempe, Arizona) — Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in June for the fourth consecutive month, while the overall economy grew for the 85th consecutive month, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Bradley J. Holcomb, CPSM, CPSD, chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. "The June PMI® registered 53.2 percent, an increase of 1.9 percentage points from the May reading of 51.3 percent. The New Orders Index registered 57 percent, an increase of 1.3 percentage points from the May reading of 55.7 percent. The Production Index registered 54.7 percent, 2.1 percentage points higher than the May reading of 52.6 percent. The Employment Index registered 50.4 percent, an increase of 1.2 percentage points from the May reading of 49.2 percent. Inventories of raw materials registered 48.5 percent, an increase of 3.5 percentage points from the May reading of 45 percent. The Prices Index registered 60.5 percent, a decrease of 3 percentage points from the May reading of 63.5 percent, indicating higher raw materials prices for the fourth consecutive month. Manufacturing registered growth in June for the fourth consecutive month, as 12 of our 18 industries reported an increase in new orders in June (down from 14 in May), and 12 of our 18 industries reported an increase in production in June (same as in May)."

Of the 18 manufacturing industries, 13 are reporting growth in June in the following order: Printing & Related Support Activities; Textile Mills; Petroleum & Coal Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Paper Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Computer & Electronic Products; Chemical Products; Primary Metals; Machinery; and Nonmetallic Mineral Products. The three industries reporting contraction in June are: Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Transportation Equipment; and Plastics & Rubber Products.

WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING ...

  • "We are gaining new customers through better sales management." (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products)
  • "Slower shipments because of weather related flooding." (Chemical Products)
  • "Conditions have remained steady from [the] past month and are in line with our forecast." (Computer & Electronic Products)
  • "Very good start of summer for business levels/orders." (Fabricated Metal Products)
  • "Business is steady with some signs of increase." (Machinery)
  • "Business is still strong, but slowing slightly." (Transportation Equipment)
  • "Business conditions are good, production and demand are stable." (Miscellaneous Manufacturing)
  • "Orders are slowing from China. American customers still steady." (Primary Metals)
  • "Demand continues to be robust." (Plastics & Rubber Products)
  • "Business is still slower than expected." (Nonmetallic Mineral Products)

MANUFACTURING AT A GLANCE
JUNE 2016



Index
Series
Index
Jun
Series
Index
May
Percentage
Point
Change


Direction
Rate
of
Change

Trend*
(Months)
PMI® 53.2 51.3 +1.9 Growing Faster 4
New Orders 57.0 55.7 +1.3 Growing Faster 6
Production 54.7 52.6 +2.1 Growing Faster 6
Employment 50.4 49.2 +1.2 Growing From Contracting 1
Supplier Deliveries 55.4 54.1 +1.3 Slowing Faster 2
Inventories 48.5 45.0 +3.5 Contracting Slower 12
Customers' Inventories 51.0 50.0 +1.0 Too High From Unchanged 1
Prices 60.5 63.5 -3.0 Increasing Slower 4
Backlog of Orders 52.5 47.0 +5.5 Growing From Contracting 1
New Export Orders 53.5 52.5 +1.0 Growing Faster 4
Imports 52.0 50.0 +2.0 Growing From Unchanged 1
OVERALL ECONOMY Growing Faster 85
Manufacturing Sector Growing Faster 4

Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® data is seasonally adjusted for New Orders, Production, Employment and Supplier Deliveries indexes.

*Number of months moving in current direction.


May 2016 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®

PMI® at 51.3%

New Orders and Production Growing
Employment and Inventories Contracting
Supplier Deliveries Slower

(Tempe, Arizona) — Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in May for the third consecutive month, while the overall economy grew for the 84th consecutive month, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Bradley J. Holcomb, CPSM, CPSD, chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. "The May PMI® registered 51.3 percent, an increase of 0.5 percentage point from the April reading of 50.8 percent. The New Orders Index registered 55.7 percent, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the April reading of 55.8 percent. The Production Index registered 52.6 percent, 1.6 percentage points lower than the April reading of 54.2 percent. The Employment Index registered 49.2 percent, the same reading as in April. Inventories of raw materials registered 45 percent, a decrease of 0.5 percentage point from the April reading of 45.5 percent. The Prices Index registered 63.5 percent, an increase of 4.5 percentage points from the April reading of 59 percent, indicating higher raw materials prices for the third consecutive month. Manufacturing registered growth in May for the third consecutive month, as 14 of our 18 industries reported an increase in new orders in May (down from 15 in April), and 12 of our 18 industries reported an increase in production in May (down from 15 in April)."

Of the 18 manufacturing industries, 12 are reporting growth in May in the following order: Wood Products; Textile Mills; Printing & Related Support Activities; Fabricated Metal Products; Paper Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Machinery; and Primary Metals. The six industries reporting contraction in May — listed in order — are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Transportation Equipment; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Chemical Products; and Furniture & Related Products.

WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING ...

  • "Business conditions remain strong with the exception of South America. Continued expectation for a strong year even with the headwinds of currency and economic slowdown." (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products)
  • "Consistent sales growth in greater China, North Asia, Southeast Asia, Canada and Mexico. Flat for the Americas and Europe." (Chemical Products)
  • "Slowdown in Chinese economy causing low orders." (Computer & Electronic Products)
  • "Continued brisk order flow for our business." (Fabricated Metal Products)
  • "Steady to slightly up production rates vs. prior month." (Machinery)
  • "Business is still good, but slowing." (Transportation Equipment)
  • "Business conditions are stable; demand is steady for our products." (Miscellaneous Manufacturing)
  • "Our business remains to be strong, but many of my suppliers are telling me their business is flat." (Plastics & Rubber Products)
  • "Oil & Gas continues to struggle to meet cost controls required in the new low-oil price environment." (Petroleum & Coal Products)
  • "Market is improving steadily in both orders and pricing." (Wood Products)

MANUFACTURING AT A GLANCE
MAY 2016



Index

Series
Index
May

Series
Index
Apr

Percentage
Point
Change



Direction

Rate
of
Change


Trend*
(Months)

PMI® 51.3 50.8 +0.5 Growing Faster 3
New Orders 55.7 55.8 -0.1 Growing Slower 5
Production 52.6 54.2 -1.6 Growing Slower 5
Employment 49.2 49.2 0.0 Contracting Same 6
Supplier Deliveries 54.1 49.1 +5.0 Slower From
Faster
1
Inventories 45.0 45.5 -0.5 Contracting Faster 11
Customers' Inventories 50.0 46.0 +4.0 Unchanged From
Too Low
1
Prices 63.5 59.0 +4.5 Increasing Faster 3
Backlog of Orders 47.0 50.5 -3.5 Contracting From Growing 1
New Export Orders 52.5 52.5 0.0 Growing Same 3
Imports 50.0 50.0 0.0 Unchanged Same 2
OVERALL ECONOMY Growing Faster 84
Manufacturing Sector Growing Faster 3

Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® data is seasonally adjusted for New Orders, Production, Employment and Supplier Deliveries indexes.

*Number of months moving in current direction.


 

ECONOMIC GROWTH TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT 2016

Manufacturing Growth Continues in 2016
Revenue to Increase 2.8%
Capital Expenditure to Increase 1.0%
Capacity Utilization Currently at 81.7%

Non-Manufacturing Growth Also Continues in 2016
Revenue to Increase 2.4%
Capital Expenditure to Increase 6.2%
Capacity Utilization Currently at 86.5%

(Tempe, AZ) —Economic growth is expected to continue in the United States throughout the remainder of 2016, say the nation's purchasing and supply executives in their Spring 2016 Semiannual Economic Forecast. Expectations for the remainder of 2016 continue to be positive in both the manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors.

These projections are part of the forecast issued by the Business Survey Committee of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®). The forecast was presented today by Bradley J. Holcomb, CPSM, CPSD, chair of the ISM Manufacturing Business Survey Committee; and by Anthony S. Nieves, CPSM, C.P.M., CFPM, chair of the ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee.

Manufacturing Summary

Fifty percent of respondents from the panel of manufacturing supply management executives predict their revenues will be 10.5 percent greater in 2016 compared to 2015, 18 percent expect a 14.2 percent decline, and 32 percent foresee no change in revenue. This yields an overall average forecast of 2.8 percent revenue growth among manufacturers for 2016. This current prediction is 1.3 percentage points below the December 2015 forecast of 4.1 percent revenue growth for 2016, but is 1.4 percent above the actual revenue growth reported for all of 2015. With operating capacity at 81.7 percent, an expected capital expenditure increase of 1 percent, an increase of 0.6 percent for prices paid for raw materials, and employment expected to remain the same for the balance of 2016, manufacturing is positioned to grow revenues while containing costs through the remainder of the year. “With 14 of the 18 industries within the manufacturing sector predicting revenue growth in 2016 when compared to 2015, U.S. manufacturing continues to move in a positive direction,” said Holcomb.

The 14 industries reporting expectations of growth in revenue for 2016 — listed in order — are: Fabricated Metal Products; Furniture & Related Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Transportation Equipment; Plastics & Rubber Products; Chemical Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Wood Products; Primary Metals; Textile Mills; Computer & Electronic Products; and Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components.

The Manufacturing panel was also asked Special Questions related to the impact thus far in 2016 on their organization’s profits due to the strength of the US dollar, the net impact of the depressed prices of oil and related commodities, and the combined impact of both of these factors. Their responses are provided at the end of this report.

Non-Manufacturing Summary

Fifty-three percent of non-manufacturing purchasing and supply executives expect their 2016 revenues to be greater by 8.5 percent as compared to 2015. Overall, respondents currently expect a 2.4 percent net increase in overall revenues, which is less than the 2.7 percent increase that was forecast in December 2015. “Non-manufacturing will continue to grow for the balance of 2016. Non-manufacturing companies continue to operate very efficiently as reflected by the high percentage of capacity utilization. Supply managers have indicated that overall costs have not been significant with pricing projected to increase 0.9 percent over the year. Overall employment is projected to grow slightly at 0.7 percent. Thirteen out of 18 industries are forecasting increased revenues which is less than the 15 industries that forecasted increased revenues last year.  The non-manufacturing sector will continue on the path of steady economic growth throughout the year,” Nieves said.

The 13 non-manufacturing industries expecting increases in revenue in 2016 — listed in order — are: Management of Companies & Support Services; Information; Wholesale Trade; Construction; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Accommodation & Food Services; Public Administration; Health Care & Social Assistance; Retail Trade; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; and Utilities.

The Non-Manufacturing panel was also asked Special Questions related to the impact thus far in 2016 on their organization’s profits due to the strength of the US dollar, the net impact of the depressed prices of oil and related commodities, and the combined impact of both of these factors. Their responses are provided at the end of this report.


April 2016 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®

PMI® at 50.8%

New Orders and Production Growing
Employment and Inventories Contracting
Supplier Deliveries Faster

(Tempe, Arizona) — Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in April for the second consecutive month, while the overall economy grew for the 83rd consecutive month, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Bradley J. Holcomb, CPSM, CPSD, chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. "The April PMI® registered 50.8 percent, a decrease of 1 percentage point from the March reading of 51.8 percent. The New Orders Index registered 55.8 percent, a decrease of 2.5 percentage points from the March reading of 58.3 percent. The Production Index registered 54.2 percent, 1.1 percentage points lower than the March reading of 55.3 percent. The Employment Index registered 49.2 percent, 1.1 percentage points above the March reading of 48.1 percent. Inventories of raw materials registered 45.5 percent, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points from the March reading of 47 percent. The Prices Index registered 59 percent, an increase of 7.5 percentage points from the March reading of 51.5 percent, indicating higher raw materials prices for the second consecutive month. Manufacturing registered growth in April for the second consecutive month, as 15 of our 18 industries reported an increase in new orders in April (up from 13 in March), and 15 of our 18 industries reported an increase in production in April (up from 12 in March)."

Of the 18 manufacturing industries, 11 are reporting growth in April in the following order: Wood Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Paper Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Primary Metals; Fabricated Metal Products; Chemical Products; Machinery; Computer & Electronic Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products. The four industries reporting contraction in April are: Petroleum & Coal Products; Transportation Equipment; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; and Furniture & Related Products.

WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING ...

  • "We are still running at capacity. New CapEx for $30 million to increase capacity, but will not be online until 2017." (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products)

  • "Remaining a bit sluggish overall although showing signs of a pickup in some areas." (Chemical Products)

  • "While oil prices have recovered slightly, the industry as a whole continues to struggle greatly." (Computer & Electronic Products)

  • "Steel prices are increasing, but it is supply-side driven. General economy is plugging along with no big changes. Kind of lackluster." (Fabricated Metal Products)

  • "Auto industry is still going strong." (Machinery)

  • "Sales are firming at the reduced levels we’ve seen this year. We think we have hit a bottom." (Transportation Equipment)

  • "Business conditions are stable. Sales and production rates are steady to improving." (Miscellaneous Manufacturing)

  • "Activity increasing as we move to our busy season." (Printing & Related Support Activities)

  • "Market is starting to pick up as expected." (Wood Products)

MANUFACTURING AT A GLANCE
APRIL 2016



Index

Series
Index
Apr

Series
Index
Mar

Percentage
Point
Change



Direction

Rate
of
Change


Trend*
(Months)

PMI®

50.8

51.8

-1.0

Growing

Slower

2

New Orders

55.8

58.3

-2.5

Growing

Slower

4

Production

54.2

55.3

-1.1

Growing

Slower

4

Employment

49.2

48.1

+1.1

Contracting

Slower

5

Supplier Deliveries

49.1

50.2

-1.1

Faster

From
Slower

1

Inventories

45.5

47.0

-1.5

Contracting

Faster

10

Customers' Inventories

46.0

49.0

-3.0

Too Low

Faster

3

Prices

59.0

51.5

+7.5

Increasing

Faster

2

Backlog of Orders

50.5

51.0

-0.5

Growing

Slower

2

Exports

52.5

52.0

+0.5

Growing

Faster

2

Imports

50.0

49.5

+0.5

Unchanged

From
Contracting

1

OVERALL ECONOMY

Growing

Slower

83

Manufacturing Sector

Growing

Slower

2

Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® data is seasonally adjusted for New Orders, Production, Employment and Supplier Deliveries indexes.
*Number of months moving in current direction.


 

March Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®

PMI® at 51.8%

New Orders and Production Growing

Employment and Inventories Contracting

Supplier Deliveries Slower

PDF Download of this month's report

(Tempe, Arizona) — Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in March for the first time in the last six months, while the overall economy grew for the 82nd consecutive month, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Bradley J. Holcomb, CPSM, CPSD, chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. “The March PMI® registered 51.8 percent, an increase of 2.3 percentage points from the February reading of 49.5 percent. The New Orders Index registered 58.3 percent, an increase of 6.8 percentage points from the February reading of 51.5 percent. The Production Index registered 55.3 percent, 2.5 percentage points higher than the February reading of 52.8 percent. The Employment Index registered 48.1 percent, 0.4 percentage point below the February reading of 48.5 percent. Inventories of raw materials registered 47 percent, an increase of 2 percentage points above the February reading of 45 percent. The Prices Index registered 51.5 percent, an increase of 13 percentage points above the February reading of 38.5 percent, indicating higher raw materials prices for the first time since October 2014. Manufacturing registered growth in March for the first time since August 2015, as 12 of our 18 industries reported sector growth, and 13 of our 18 industries reported an increase in new orders in March.”

Of the 18 manufacturing industries, 12 are reporting growth in March in the following order: Printing & Related Support Activities; Furniture & Related Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Machinery; Plastics & Rubber Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Chemical Products; Paper Products; Primary Metals; and Computer & Electronic Products. The five industries reporting contraction in March are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Textile Mills; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Transportation Equipment; and Petroleum & Coal Products.

WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING …

  • “Unemployment rate is low in our county, making it hard to find workers. We are understaffed and running lots of overtime.” (Plastics & Rubber Products)
  • “Business in telecom is booming. Fiber plant is at capacity.” (Chemical Products)
  • “Current trends remain steady. No issues with delivery or costs.” (Computer & Electronic Products)
  • “Capital equipment sales are steady.” (Fabricated Metal Products)
  • “Requests for proposals for new equipment [are] very strong.” (Machinery)
  • “Government is spending again. Have received delivery orders.” (Transportation Equipment)
  • “Things are starting to pick up. Our business is seasonal and it is that time of year.” (Printing & Related Support Activities)
  • “Business conditions are stable, little change from last month.” (Miscellaneous Manufacturing)
  • “Incoming sales are improving.” (Furniture & Related Products)
  • “Our business is still going strong.” (Primary Metals)

MANUFACTURING AT A GLANCE

March 2016

Index

Series Index

Mar

Series Index

Feb

Percentage

Point

Change

Direction

Rate of Change

Trend* (Months)

PMI®

51.8

49.5

+2.3

Growing

From Contracting

1

New Orders

58.3

51.5

+6.8

Growing

Faster

3

Production

55.3

52.8

+2.5

Growing

Faster

3

Employment

48.1

48.5

-0.4

Contracting

Faster

4

Supplier Deliveries

50.2

49.7

+0.5

Slower

From
Faster

1

Inventories

47.0

45.0

+2.0

Contracting

Slower

9

Customers’ Inventories

49.0

47.0

+2.0

Too Low

Slower

2

Prices

51.5

38.5

+13.0

Increasing

From Decreasing

1

Backlog of Orders

51.0

48.5

+2.5

Growing

From Contracting

1

Exports

52.0

46.5

+5.5

Growing

From Contracting

1

Imports

49.5

49.0

+0.5

Contracting

Slower

2

OVERALL ECONOMY

 

Manufacturing Sector

Growing

Faster

82

Growing

From Contracting

1

Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® data is seasonally adjusted for the New Orders, Production, Employment and Supplier Deliveries Indexes.

*Number of months moving in current direction.


 

February 2016 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®

PMI® at 49.5%

New Orders and Production Growing

Employment and Inventories Contracting

Supplier Deliveries Faster

(Tempe, Arizona) — Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in February for the fifth consecutive month, while the overall economy grew for the 81st consecutive month, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Bradley J. Holcomb, CPSM, CPSD, chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. "The February PMI® registered 49.5 percent, an increase of 1.3 percentage points from the January reading of 48.2 percent. The New Orders Index registered 51.5 percent, the same reading as in January. The Production Index registered 52.8 percent, 2.6 percentage points higher than the January reading of 50.2 percent. The Employment Index registered 48.5 percent, 2.6 percentage points above the January reading of 45.9 percent. Inventories of raw materials registered 45 percent, an increase of 1.5 percentage points above the January reading of 43.5 percent. The Prices Index registered 38.5 percent, an increase of 5 percentage points above the January reading of 33.5 percent, indicating lower raw materials prices for the 16th consecutive month. Comments from the panel indicate a more positive view of demand than in January, as 12 of our 18 industries report an increase in new orders, while four industries report a decrease in new orders."

Of the 18 manufacturing industries, nine are reporting growth in February in the following order: Textile Mills; Wood Products; Furniture & Related Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Chemical Products; Primary Metals; and Paper Products. The seven industries reporting contraction in February — listed in order — are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Transportation Equipment; Plastics & Rubber Products; and Fabricated Metal Products.

WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING …

  • "Low oil prices and reduced activity continue affecting our business." (Petroleum & Coal Products)
  • "U.S. business demand is solid; international demand is soft." (Chemical Products)
  • "Mobility spend is up." (Computer & Electronic Products)
  • "Business has to get better. And it appears it is. Healthy backlog for 2016." (Fabricated Metal Products)
  • "Very strong demand for product. Material availability very good and commodity pricing continues to be depressed." (Machinery)
  • "Airlines are still ordering planes and spare parts for plane galleys." (Transportation Equipment)
  • "Market is beginning to trend up with spring season on its way." (Wood Products)
  • "Not seeing impact from global economic volatility or oil prices. Business is strong and growth projections remain the same." (Miscellaneous Manufacturing)
  • "Orders are coming in stronger than expected." (Furniture & Related Products)
  • "Still a bit sluggish." (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products)

MANUFACTURING AT A GLANCE

FEBRUARY 2016



Index

Series
Index
Feb

Series
Index
Jan

Percentage
Point
Change



Direction

Rate
of
Change


Trend*
(Months)

PMI® 49.5 48.2 +1.3 Contracting Slower 5
New Orders 51.5 51.5 0.0 Growing Same 2
Production 52.8 50.2 +2.6 Growing Faster 2
Employment 48.5 45.9 +2.6 Contracting Slower 3
Supplier Deliveries 49.7 50.0 -0.3 Faster From
Unchanged
1
Inventories 45.0 43.5 +1.5 Contracting Slower 8
Customers' Inventories 47.0 51.5 -4.5 Too Low From
Too High
1
Prices 38.5 33.5 +5.0 Decreasing Slower 16
Backlog of Orders 48.5 43.0 +5.5 Contracting Slower 9
Exports 46.5 47.0 -0.5 Contracting Faster 2
Imports 49.0 51.0 -2.0 Contracting From
Growing
1
OVERALL ECONOMY Growing Faster 81
Manufacturing Sector Contracting Slower 5

Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® data is seasonally adjusted for New Orders, Production, Employment and Supplier Deliveries indexes.

*Number of months moving in current direction.


January Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®

 

PMI® at 48.2%

New Orders, and Production Growing

Employment and Inventories Contracting

Supplier Deliveries Unchanged

 

(Tempe, Arizona) — Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in January for the fourth consecutive month, while the overall economy grew for the 80th consecutive month, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Bradley J. Holcomb, CPSM, CPSD, chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. “The January PMI® registered 48.2 percent, an increase of 0.2 percentage point from the seasonally adjusted December reading of 48 percent. The New Orders Index registered 51.5 percent, an increase of 2.7 percentage points from the seasonally adjusted reading of 48.8 percent in December. The Production Index registered 50.2 percent, 0.3 percentage point higher than the seasonally adjusted December reading of 49.9 percent. The Employment Index registered 45.9 percent, 2.1 percentage points below the seasonally adjusted December reading of 48 percent. Inventories of raw materials registered 43.5 percent, the same reading as in December. The Prices Index registered 33.5 percent, the same reading as in December, indicating lower raw materials prices for the 15th consecutive month. Comments from the panel indicate a mix ranging from strong to soft orders, as eight of our 18 industries report an increase in orders, and seven industries report a decrease in orders.”

Of the 18 manufacturing industries, eight are reporting growth in January in the following order: Textile Mills; Wood Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Printing & Related Support Activities; Furniture & Related Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Machinery; and Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components. The 10 industries reporting contraction in January — listed in order — are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Paper Products; Transportation Equipment; Plastics & Rubber Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Primary Metals; and Chemical Products.

WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING …

  • “The oil and gas sector continues to be challenged by low oil and gas prices. Risk of suppliers filing for bankruptcy and reducing their workforce is becoming an increasing risk. Our company workforce is also declining.” (Petroleum & Coal Products)
  • “Business this month [is] better than last month and better than this period last year. Reduced oil and basic chemical prices providing favorable margin comparisons.” (Chemical Products)
  • “Huge rollout in wireless in 2016 across all markets. We should be very, very busy.” (Computer & Electronic Products)
  • “We are a bit slower, but staying busy.” (Fabricated Metal Products)
  • “Business is still strong, but slowing.” (Transportation Equipment)
  • “2016 starting off with strong orders.” (Primary Metals)
  • “Market is sluggish to start the year.” (Wood Products)
  • “Medical device continues to be strong.” (Miscellaneous Manufacturing)
  • “Overall demand is higher than expected for post-holiday season.” (Plastics & Rubber Products)
  • “Much worldwide macroeconomic uncertainty affecting our business. Business confidence seems low.” (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products)

MANUFACTURING AT A GLANCE

January 2016

Index

Series Index

Jan

Series Index

Dec

Percentage

Point

Change

Direction

Rate of Change

Trend* (Months)

PMI®

48.2

48.0

+0.2

Contracting

Slower

4

New Orders

51.5

48.8

+2.7

Growing

From Contracting

1

Production

50.2

49.9

+0.3

Growing

From Contracting

1

Employment

45.9

48.0

-2.1

Contracting

Faster

2

Supplier Deliveries

50.0

49.8

+0.2

Unchanged

From Faster

1

Inventories

43.5

43.5

0.0

Contracting

Same

7

Customers’ Inventories

51.5

51.5

0.0

Too High

Same

6

Prices

33.5

33.5

0.0

Decreasing

Same

15

Backlog of Orders

43.0

41.0

+2.0

Contracting

Slower

8

Exports

47.0

51.0

-4.0

Contracting

From Growing

1

Imports

51.0

45.5

+5.5

Growing

From Contracting

1

OVERALL ECONOMY

 

Manufacturing Sector

Growing

Faster

80

Contracting

Slower

4

Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® data is seasonally adjusted for the New Orders, Production, Employment and Supplier Deliveries Indexes.

*Number of months moving in current direction.

Indexes reflect newly released seasonal adjustment factors.

 

COMMODITIES REPORTED UP/DOWN IN PRICE AND IN SHORT SUPPLY

Commodities Up in Price

Natural Gas; and Steel*.

Commodities Down in Price

Aluminum (14); Copper (3); Crude Oil (2); Diesel (2); Gasoline (2); HDPE Resin (2); Nickel (7); Oil (2); Resin Based Products; Stainless Steel (15); Steel* (7); Steel – Cold Rolled (4); and Steel – Hot Rolled (4).

Commodities in Short Supply

None (3).

Note: The number of consecutive months the commodity is listed is indicated after each item.

*Reported as both up and down in price.

 

ISM Makes Annual Adjustments to Seasonal Factors for ISM Manufacturing PMI® and Diffusion Indexes and ISM Non-Manufacturing NMI® and Diffusion Indexes

FOR RELEASE: January 29, 2015

Contact:    Kathleen Lacy
  ISM, ROB/Research
Report On Business® Analyst
  Tempe, Arizona
  800/888-6276, Ext. 3143
  klacy@ism.ws

(Tempe, Arizona) — Based on input from an independent expert, Institute for Supply Management® recently announced the completion of its annual adjustments to the seasonal factors used in the monthly Institute for Supply Management® (ISM) Manufacturing Report On Business® and the monthly Institute for Supply Management® (ISM) Non-Manufacturing Report On Business®. Economists and managers who track these indexes will note that changes are effective with the January 2015 ISM Manufacturing Report On Business®, which is scheduled to be released on February 2, 2015, and the January 2015 ISM Non-Manufacturing Report On Business®, which will be released on February 4, 2015.

Seasonal adjustment factors are used to allow for the effects of repetitive intra-year variations resulting primarily from normal differences in weather conditions, various institutional arrangements, and differences attributable to non-movable holidays. It is standard practice to project the seasonal adjustment factors used to calculate the indexes one year ahead (2015).

As in previous years, the X-13-ARIMA program was used to develop the revisions to the Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing indexes for 2011 through 2014, as well as the 2015 projected seasonal factors. The 2015 seasonal factors will be recomputed when the actual data are known in early 2016. Projected seasonal factors for 2015 and revised seasonally adjusted indexes are shown below, followed by charts tracking both the former and the revised PMI® for Manufacturing and NMI® and Business Activity Indexes for Non-Manufacturing.


2015 Seasonal Adjustment Factors for ISM Manufacturing Indexes

  New
Orders

Production

Employment
Supplier
Deliveries
Jan 2015 1.012 0.964 0.970 1.020
Feb 2015 1.058 1.034 1.012 1.003
Mar 2015 1.081 1.060 1.020 1.029
Apr 2015 1.103 1.108 1.077 1.037
May 2015 1.030 1.065 1.045 1.006
Jun 2015 0.973 0.990 1.009 0.994
Jul 2015 0.930 0.955 1.015 1.023
Aug 2015 0.977 0.979 0.987 0.996
Sep 2015 0.968 0.974 0.970 0.997
Oct 2015 0.955 0.964 0.967 0.972
Nov 2015 0.992 0.985 0.964 0.949
Dec 2015 0.924 0.924 0.966 0.975

 

To compute the PMI®:

1)  Calculate the unadjusted diffusion index for New Orders, Production, Employment and Supplier Deliveries to two decimal places (percent higher or slower plus one half of the percent same or unchanged). For Inventories, it will be percent higher plus one half of the percent same or unchanged.

2)  Divide each unadjusted diffusion index by its seasonal factor (round to one decimal place).

3)  Add all five index numbers together and divide by five.

To compute other indexes, follow steps #1 and #2 above for each indicator.

 

2015 Seasonal Adjustment Factors for ISM Non-Manufacturing Indexes

  Business
Activity
New
Orders

Employment

Prices
Jan 2015 0.935 0.941 0.949 1.032
Feb 2015 0.993 1.015 1.002 1.047
Mar 2015 1.070 1.046 1.034 1.068
Apr 2015 1.063 1.039 1.050 1.047
May 2015 1.050 1.053 1.058 1.010
Jun 2015 0.976 1.003 1.082 1.018
Jul 2015 1.002 0.987 1.032 1.006
Aug 2015 0.994 0.978 0.991 0.975
Sep 2015 0.997 1.015 0.935 0.971
Oct 2015 0.960 0.951 0.955 0.958
Nov 2015 0.988 1.017 0.927 0.925
Dec 2015 0.971 0.953 0.988 0.945

 

To compute the NMI®:

1)  Calculate the unadjusted diffusion index for Business Activity, New Orders and Employment to two decimal places (percent higher or up plus one half of the percent same or unchanged). For Supplier Deliveries, it will be percent slower plus one half of the percent same or unchanged.

2)  Divide each unadjusted diffusion index by its seasonal factor (round to one decimal place).

3)  Add all four index numbers together and divide by four.

To compute other indexes, follow steps #1 and #2 above for each indicator.

 

Revised Manufacturing Seasonally Adjusted Indexes 2011-2014

  PMI® New
Orders
Production Employment Supplier
Deliveries
Jan 2011 59.1 62.1 63.7 60.7 57.0
Feb 2011 59.6 61.9 64.9 61.6 58.9
Mar 2011 59.2 61.7 63.9 60.9 60.3
Apr 2011 59.3 62.1 61.3 59.7 58.9
May 2011 53.9 53.9 53.4 57.5 56.0
Jun 2011 56.9 55.9 57.4 61.0 56.6
Jul 2011 52.7 54.4 54.4 55.3 51.5
Aug 2011 52.8 51.3 51.5 54.6 52.1
Sep 2011 52.7 51.3 53.3 54.7 52.2
Oct 2011 51.4 51.2 52.1 54.9 52.1
Nov 2011 51.7 54.0 53.7 52.9 51.2
Dec 2011 52.8 55.3 58.8 54.7 49.7
 
Jan 2012 52.9 55.2 55.2 54.2 50.4
Feb 2012 53.1 55.9 58.1 53.9 48.1
Mar 2012 53.3 55.9 56.8 55.1 48.7
Apr 2012 54.2 57.3 60.1 56.4 48.5
May 2012 53.4 58.9 55.1 56.5 50.4
Jun 2012 51.3 51.5 53.9 56.7 50.4
Jul 2012 50.1 49.2 50.5 52.1 49.7
Aug 2012 50.7 48.4 49.1 52.5 50.5
Sep 2012 51.9 53.0 51.1 54.1 50.9
Oct 2012 50.7 50.2 50.9 52.9 49.5
Nov 2012 48.9 49.5 51.2 48.6 50.2
Dec 2012 50.0 50.3 51.9 52.2 52.5
 
Jan 2013 52.6 51.6 54.8 54.2 51.5
Feb 2013 54.1 57.0 58.3 52.7 51.1
Mar 2013 52.0 52.7 54.6 52.8 50.2
Apr 2013 50.3 50.6 53.2 50.4 50.8
May 2013 50.1 51.1 50.8 49.5 50.0
Jun 2013 52.8 55.9 55.6 50.8 51.1
Jul 2013 54.4 58.0 60.7 54.0 52.2
Aug 2013 55.6 61.5 62.0 54.5 52.7
Sep 2013 55.6 60.7 59.7 54.6 53.1
Oct 2013 55.8 58.9 59.2 54.1 54.2
Nov 2013 56.0 60.2 60.9 55.3 53.3
Dec 2013 56.1 64.9 60.4 55.2 53.1
 
Jan 2014 51.8 52.8 56.0 52.6 53.8
Feb 2014 54.3 56.1 52.1 52.8 57.9
Mar 2014 54.4 56.4 57.3 51.9 53.8
Apr 2014 55.3 56.2 57.1 54.7 55.4
May 2014 55.6 58.7 59.0 53.5 53.6
Jun 2014 55.7 59.1 59.9 53.9 52.7
Jul 2014 56.4 62.0 60.9 56.3 54.3
Aug 2014 58.1 63.9 63.1 57.4 54.2
Sep 2014 56.1 59.4 62.4 54.6 52.6
Oct 2014 57.9 63.0 62.8 55.2 56.1
Nov 2014 57.6 62.1 62.6 54.6 57.0
Dec 2014 55.1 57.8 57.7 56.0 58.6

 

The revised breakeven point for the overall economy is a PMI® of 43.1 percent. A PMI® over 43.1 percent indicates an expanding overall economy. A PMI® below 43.1 percent indicates the overall economy is declining. The ISM Manufacturing Inventories Index is no longer seasonally adjusted as of January 2012.

 

Revised Non-Manufacturing Seasonally Adjusted Indexes 2011-2014

  NMI® Business
Activity
New
Orders
Employment Prices
Jan 2011 57.2 61.5 61.7 51.9 70.2
Feb 2011 57.2 63.4 59.5 53.9 70.6
Mar 2011 55.8 58.6 60.0 53.0 70.5
Apr 2011 55.4 57.1 57.5 53.9 71.1
May 2011 55.0 54.8 56.3 54.7 70.3
Jun 2011 54.4 56.6 55.8 53.0 62.3
Jul 2011 53.7 56.5 54.2 53.5 60.4
Aug 2011 53.7 56.0 54.4 51.5 60.8
Sep 2011 52.5 56.1 54.9 49.3 61.3
Oct 2011 52.8 54.1 53.3 51.9 58.4
Nov 2011 53.0 55.8 53.4 52.9 63.5
Dec 2011 52.6 55.9 54.1 48.8 62.0
 
Jan 2012 55.8 58.8 58.5 54.7 61.5
Feb 2012 55.5 60.4 58.2 53.8 66.8
Mar 2012 55.5 59.1 58.1 55.3 64.8
Apr 2012 54.6 55.9 55.8 55.0 56.5
May 2012 54.3 56.0 55.9 52.4 53.0
Jun 2012 53.5 54.7 55.5 52.6 49.8
Jul 2012 52.5 55.4 54.8 50.4 54.9
Aug 2012 53.2 54.5 54.1 52.8 61.7
Sep 2012 54.9 59.2 55.9 52.8 66.1
Oct 2012 54.4 56.7 55.6 53.9 62.0
Nov 2012 54.9 60.3 57.0 53.3 58.2
Dec 2012 55.8 60.7 59.1 54.8 56.4
 
Jan 2013 55.1 56.6 56.0 55.3 57.1
Feb 2013 55.7 57.2 57.6 56.3 60.3
Mar 2013 55.0 57.3 56.4 53.2 56.1
Apr 2013 53.9 55.6 55.8 53.3 52.5
May 2013 53.9 56.4 56.2 51.0 53.3
Jun 2013 53.7 54.7 53.5 55.0 55.3
Jul 2013 55.3 58.3 56.3 54.0 57.5
Aug 2013 57.1 59.7 58.3 55.7 53.1
Sep 2013 54.0 54.8 57.6 53.5 56.9
Oct 2013 55.0 59.6 56.5 54.9 56.9
Nov 2013 53.8 54.5 55.2 54.3 53.3
Dec 2013 53.1 55.3 50.5 55.2 55.2
 
Jan 2014 54.3 56.6 52.2 56.0 57.0
Feb 2014 52.5 55.7 53.0 48.4 56.0
Mar 2014 53.7 54.2 54.8 53.7 58.1
Apr 2014 55.3 60.3 58.3 52.2 60.4
May 2014 56.1 61.1 59.9 53.2 60.2
Jun 2014 56.3 59.2 60.4 54.5 60.1
Jul 2014 57.9 61.3 62.6 56.1 60.0
Aug 2014 58.6 63.1 62.1 56.6 57.3
Sep 2014 58.1 62.0 60.5 57.8 55.2
Oct 2014 56.9 60.5 59.3 58.3 52.8
Nov 2014 58.8 63.4 61.0 56.3 55.0
Dec 2014 56.5 58.6 59.2 55.7 49.8

 

Charts Illustrating Former and Revised Indexes

ISM Manufacturing Index (PMI®) Chart: 2011-2014

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (NMI®) Chart: 2011-2014

 

The ISM Report On Business® is considered by many economists to be the most reliable near-term economic barometer available. It is reviewed regularly by top government agencies and economic and business leaders for its timely, accurate information. The Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® is published monthly by the Institute for Supply Management®. Each month, both reports are compiled from responses to questions asked of purchasing and supply executives across the country and reflects change, if any, in the current month compared to previous months. Institute for Supply Management® (ISM) is the first supply management institute in the world. Founded in 1915, ISM's mission is to enhance the value and performance of procurement and supply chain management practitioners and their organizations worldwide. By executing and extending its mission through education, research, standards of excellence and information dissemination — including the renowned monthly ISM Report On Business® — ISM maintains a strong global influence among individuals and organizations.


 

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