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Contact:

Kristina Cahill
Report On Business® Analyst
ISM®, ROB/Research Manager
Tempe, Arizona
480-752-6276, Ext. 3015
E-mail: kcahill@instituteforsupplymanagement.org

 


 

June 2019 Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®

NMI® at 55.1%

Business Activity Index at 58.2%
New Orders Index at 55.8%
Employment Index at 55%

(Tempe, Arizona) – Economic activity in the non-manufacturing sector grew in June for the 113th consecutive month, say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in the latest Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, CPSM, C.P.M., A.P.P., CFPM, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: “The NMI® registered 55.1 percent, which is 1.8 percentage points lower than the May reading of 56.9 percent. This represents continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector, at a slower rate. This is the index’s lowest reading since July 2017, when it registered 55.1 percent. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index decreased to 58.2 percent, 3 percentage points lower than the May reading of 61.2 percent, reflecting growth for the 119th consecutive month. The New Orders Index registered 55.8 percent; 2.8 percentage points lower than the reading of 58.6 percent in May. The Employment Index decreased 3.1 percentage points in June to 55 percent from the May reading of 58.1 percent. The Prices Index increased 3.5 percentage points from the May reading of 55.4 percent to 58.9 percent, indicating that prices increased in June for the 25th consecutive month. According to the NMI®, 16 non-manufacturing industries reported growth. Although the non-manufacturing sector’s growth rate dipped in June, the sector continues to reflect strength. The comments from the respondents reflect mixed sentiment about business conditions and the overall economy. A degree of uncertainty exists due to trade and tariffs.”

INDUSTRY PERFORMANCE

The 16 non-manufacturing industries reporting growth in June — listed in order — are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Other Services; Finance & Insurance; Accommodation & Food Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Mining; Construction; Educational Services; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Utilities; Public Administration; Information; Management of Companies & Support Services; Transportation & Warehousing; Retail Trade; and Wholesale Trade. The only industry reporting a decrease is Arts, Entertainment & Recreation.

WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING

  • “Low milk prices and a weakened dairy economy resulted in reduced feed sales.” (Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting)
  • “New residential sales are off the typical pace by 10 to 15 percent year over year. Tariffs are working their way through the system, raising costs on finished materials. Wet weather has slowed construction and starts for the beginning of the season.” (Construction)
  • “The continued restructuring of ocean-carrier routing is still causing havoc in the supply chain. We are experiencing minimal impact due to an increase in inventory levels.” (Wholesale Trade)
  • “The largest business condition impacting general purchasing operations is the increased cost of goods due to the tariffs placed on China.” (Retail Trade)
  • “Business continues to run well, [with] indications of slowing customer demand and improvement in supplier delivery performance.” (Transportation & Warehousing)
  • “General conditions are steady — not increasing or going down.” (Finance & Insurance)
  • “Waiting to see what new tariffs on Mexican steel will do to the market.” (Professional, Scientific & Technical Services)
  • “The suppliers we do business with are ‘claiming tariffs’ to justify price increases. While some of these issues could be credible, it’s our opinion that this issue provides cover to increase margins, as few will detail the line-item impact.” (Management of Companies & Support Services)
  • “Closely watching the Trump tariffs on China, which could significantly impact medical supplies.” (Health Care & Social Assistance)
  • “Business is stable, but very fast paced. The labor market is tighter than ever, and we cannot work enough hours.” (Public Administration)

ISM® NON-MANUFACTURING SURVEY RESULTS AT A GLANCE COMPARISON OF ISM® NON-MANUFACTURING AND ISM® MANUFACTURING SURVEYS*
June 2019

  Non-Manufacturing Manufacturing
Index Series Index Jun Series Index May Percent Point Change Direction Rate of Change Trend** (Months) Series Index Jun Series Index May Percent Point Change
NMI®/ PMI® 55.1 56.9 -1.8 Growing Slower 113 51.7 52.1 -0.4
Business Activity/ Production 58.2 61.2 -3.0 Growing Slower 119 54.1 51.3 +2.8
New Orders 55.8 58.6 -2.8 Growing Slower 119 50.0 52.7 -2.7
Employment 55.0 58.1 -3.1 Growing Slower 64 54.5 53.7 +0.8
Supplier Deliveries 51.5 49.5 +2.0 Slowing From Faster 1 50.7 52.0 -1.3
Inventories 55.0 54.0 +1.0 Growing Faster 3 49.1 50.9 -1.8
Prices 58.9 55.4 +3.5 Increasing Faster 25 47.9 53.2 -5.3
Backlog of Orders 56.0 52.5 +3.5 Growing Faster 18 47.4 47.2 +0.2
New Export Orders 55.5 55.5 0.0 Growing Same 29 50.5 51.0 -0.5
Imports 50.0 50.0 0.0 Unchanged Same 2 50.0 49.4 +0.6
Inventory Sentiment 58.5 58.5 0.0 Too High Same 264 N/A N/A N/A
Customers' Inventories N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 44.6 43.7 +0.9
Overall Economy Growing Slower 119
Non-Manufacturing Sector Growing Slower 113

Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® data is seasonally adjusted for the Business Activity, New Orders, Prices and Employment Indexes.
Manufacturing ISM ® Report On Business® data is seasonally adjusted for New Orders, Production, Employment and Supplier Deliveries Indexes.
*Number of months moving in current direction.


 

May 2019 Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®

NMI® at 56.9%

Business Activity Index at 61.2%
New Orders Index at 58.6%
Employment Index at 58.1%

(Tempe, Arizona) – Economic activity in the non-manufacturing sector grew in May for the 112th consecutive month, say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in the latest Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, CPSM, C.P.M., A.P.P., CFPM, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: “The NMI® registered 56.9 percent, which is 1.4 percentage points higher than the April reading of 55.5 percent. This represents continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector, at a slightly faster rate. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index increased to 61.2 percent, 1.7 percentage points higher than the April reading of 59.5 percent, reflecting growth for the 118th consecutive month, at a faster rate in May. The New Orders Index registered 58.6 percent; 0.5 percentage point higher than the reading of 58.1 percent in April. The Employment Index increased 4.4 percentage points in May to 58.1 percent from the April reading of 53.7 percent. The Prices Index decreased 0.3 percentage point from the April reading of 55.7 percent to 55.4 percent, indicating that prices increased in May for the 24th consecutive month. According to the NMI®, 16 non-manufacturing industries reported growth. The non-manufacturing sector continues to experience a slight uptick in business activity, but it is still leveling off overall. Respondents are mostly optimistic about overall business conditions, but concerns remain about tariffs and employment resources.”

INDUSTRY PERFORMANCE

The 16 non-manufacturing industries reporting growth in May — listed in order — are: Accommodation & Food Services; Educational Services; Management of Companies & Support Services; Construction; Transportation & Warehousing; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Utilities; Wholesale Trade; Public Administration; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Mining; Health Care & Social Assistance; Other Services; Finance & Insurance; Information; and Retail Trade. The only industry reporting a decrease is Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting.

WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING

  • “Waiting to see [the] impact of Chinese import tariff affect.” (Utilities)
  • “Our local economy is doing very well except for a large number of suburban office vacancies.” (Finance & Insurance)
  • “There is added pressure to find operational savings so we can reduce the cost of healthcare, be a model to others, and pass the savings along to our patients and members of our health insurance business.” (Health Care & Social Assistance)
  • “Economy is good and it's showing in our weekly sales, tariffs are affecting some, but doesn't seem to matter. Our prices are up as well as costs, but sales are good.” (Accommodation & Food Services)
  • “Low unemployment is good since our business is entertainment and relies on discretionary spend.” (Arts, Entertainment & Recreation
  • “Ability to source and retain employees continues to strain the business.” (Construction)
  • “General conditions are steady, not increasing or going down.” (Information)
  • “We reported very strong Q1 results and raised our FY guidance. However, our stock has traded down due to the continued uncertainty in healthcare/Rx. There is a concern that tariffs on pharmaceuticals could be on the horizon.” (Retail Trade)
  • “Our business level is connected to metal commodity future outlook, but current trade war does not let investors have a clear sight. In this sense, [it] has been very difficult to plan in a long term ahead.” (Mining)
  • “Gearing up for summer busy construction season.” (Public Administration)

ISM® NON-MANUFACTURING SURVEY RESULTS AT A GLANCE COMPARISON OF ISM® NON-MANUFACTURING AND ISM® MANUFACTURING SURVEYS*
MAY 2019

  Non-Manufacturing Manufacturing
Index Series Index May Series Index Apr Percent Point Change Direction Rate of Change Trend** (Months) Series Index May Series Index Apr Percent Point Change
NMI®/ PMI® 56.9 55.5 +1.4 Growing Faster 112 52.1 52.8 -0.7
Business Activity/ Production 61.2 59.5 +1.7 Growing Faster 118 51.3 52.3 -1.0
New Orders 58.6 58.1 +0.5 Growing Faster 118 52.7 51.7 +1.0
Employment 58.1 53.7 +4.4 Growing Faster 63 53.7 52.4 +1.3
Supplier Deliveries 49.5 50.5 -1.0 Faster From Slowing 1 52.0 54.6 -2.6
Inventories 54.0 51.5 +2.5 Growing Faster 2 50.9 52.9 -2.0
Prices 55.4 55.7 -0.3 Increasing Slower 24 53.2 50.0 +3.2
Backlog of Orders 52.5 55.0 -2.5 Growing Slower 17 47.2 53.9 -6.7
New Export Orders 55.5 57.0 -1.5 Growing Slower 28 51.0 49.5 +1.5
Imports 50.0 55.0 -5.0 Unchanged From Growing 1 49.4 49.8 -0.4
Inventory Sentiment 58.5 60.0 -1.5 Too High Slower 263 N/A N/A N/A
Customers' Inventories N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 43.7 42.6 +1.1
Overall Economy Growing Faster 118
Non-Manufacturing Sector Growing Faster 112

Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® data is seasonally adjusted for the New Orders, Production, Employment and Supplier Deliveries Indexes.
*Number of months moving in current direction.


 

April 2019 Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®

NMI® at 55.5%

Business Activity Index at 59.5%
New Orders Index at 58.1%
Employment Index at 53.7%

(Tempe, Arizona) – Economic activity in the non-manufacturing sector grew in April for the 111th consecutive month, say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in the latest Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, CPSM, C.P.M., A.P.P., CFPM, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: “The NMI® registered 55.5 percent, which is 0.6 percentage point lower than the March reading of 56.1 percent. This represents continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector, at a slightly slower rate. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index increased to 59.5 percent, 2.1 percentage points higher than the March reading of 57.4 percent, reflecting growth for the 117th consecutive month, at a faster rate in April. The New Orders Index registered 58.1 percent; 0.9 percentage point lower than the reading of 59 percent in March. The Employment Index decreased 2.2 percentage points in April to 53.7 percent from the March reading of 55.9 percent. The Prices Index decreased 3 percentage points from the March reading of 58.7 percent to 55.7 percent, indicating that prices increased in April for the 23rd consecutive month. According to the NMI®, 15 non-manufacturing industries reported growth. The non-manufacturing sector has experienced an uptick in business activity, but in general, there has been a leveling off. Respondents are still mostly optimistic about overall business conditions, but concerns remain about employment resources.”

INDUSTRY PERFORMANCE

The 15 non-manufacturing industries reporting growth in April — listed in order — are: Transportation & Warehousing; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Construction; Accommodation & Food Services; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Public Administration; Health Care & Social Assistance; Utilities; Other Services; Wholesale Trade; Management of Companies & Support Services; Mining; Educational Services; Finance & Insurance; and Information.

WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING

  • “Several produce products — particularly avocados and celery — are experiencing supply issues that are affecting prices. Prices for these items have increased and will continue to remain high [in retail and wholesale markets] for the foreseeable future.” (Accommodation & Food Services)
  • “We have increased wages to comply with increases in government-mandated minimum-wage levels. In order to retain production employees, we are going to a weekly payroll system.” (Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting)
  • “Extremely difficult to fill direct care personnel positions.” (Health Care & Social Assistance)
  • “Spring selling season is here for residential construction. Sales are coming, but negotiations are now the norm. Traffic is higher than the last three months, mostly due to lower mortgage rates.” (Construction)
  • “April business has slowed a bit over March, which is typical. However, while January and February were slightly under last year’s numbers for the same months, March [brought] a resurgence in orders that continued into April. So, the March and April order levels are significantly higher than last year’s. The volume is helping with negotiation for lower prices, while causing backlogs in the supply chain.” (Management of Companies & Support Services)
  • “We had a general slowing of business activity beginning in February. We initially believed that February’s slowness was primarily weather related, but the slowness continued into March and now April.” (Wholesale Trade)
  • “The outlook for mining capital expenditures looks like it will not change for a while. [We don’t] expect much growth, so we keep working with same team and shrinking capex investments.” (Mining)
  • “We have experienced several cancellations that have significantly impacted the month’s revenue. [The cancellations] appear to be attributed to an international business situation — which was the source for the potential revenue.” (Professional, Scientific & Technical Services)
  • “Business is steady. Recruiting qualified employees has been difficult.” (Public Administration)
  • “Continuing momentum in most areas. We continue to have pressure finding talent to support open positions. Starting to see increases in building costs due to increases in labor [costs]. Inventory moving well, with deliveries on time.” (Retail Trade)

ISM® NON-MANUFACTURING SURVEY RESULTS AT A GLANCE COMPARISON OF ISM® NON-MANUFACTURING AND ISM® MANUFACTURING SURVEYS*
APRIL 2019

  Non-Manufacturing Manufacturing
Index Series Index Apr Series Index Mar Percent Point Change Direction Rate of Change Trend** (Months) Series Index Apr Series Index Mar Percent Point Change
NMI®/ PMI® 55.5 56.1 -0.6 Growing Slower 111 52.8 55.3 -2.5
Business Activity/ Production 59.5 57.4 +2.1 Growing Faster 117 52.3 55.8 -3.5
New Orders 58.1 59.0 -0.9 Growing Slower 117 51.7 57.4 -5.7
Employment 53.7 55.9 -2.2 Growing Slower 62 52.4 57.5 -5.1
Supplier Deliveries 50.5 52.0 -1.5 Slowing Slower 40 54.6 54.2 +0.4
Inventories 51.5 50.0 +1.5 Growing From Unchanged 1 52.9 51.8 +1.1
Prices 55.7 58.7 -3.0 Increasing Slower 23 50.0 54.3 -4.3
Backlog of Orders 55.0 56.5 -1.5 Growing Slower 16 53.9 50.4 +3.5
New Export Orders 57.0 52.5 +4.5 Growing Faster 27 49.5 51.7 -2.2
Imports 55.0 51.5 +3.5 Growing Faster 2 49.8 51.1 -1.3
Inventory Sentiment 60.0 62.5 -2.5 Too High Slower 262 N/A N/A N/A
Customers' Inventories N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 42.6 42.7 -0.1
Overall Economy Growing Slower 117
Non-Manufacturing Sector Growing Slower 111

Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® data is seasonally adjusted for the Business Activity, New Orders, Prices and Employment Indexes. Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® data is seasonally adjusted for New Orders, Production, Employment and Supplier Deliveries Indexes.
**Number of months moving in current direction.


 

March 2019 Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®

NMI® at 56.1%

Business Activity Index at 57.4%
New Orders Index at 59%
Employment Index at 55.9%

(Tempe, Arizona) – Economic activity in the non-manufacturing sector grew in March for the 110th consecutive month, say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in the latest Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, CPSM, C.P.M., A.P.P., CFPM, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: “The NMI® registered 56.1 percent, which is 3.6 percentage points lower than the February reading of 59.7 percent. This represents continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector, at a slower rate. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index decreased to 57.4 percent, 7.3 percentage points lower than the February reading of 64.7 percent, reflecting growth for the 116th consecutive month, at a slower rate in March. The New Orders Index registered 59 percent, 6.2 percentage points lower than the reading of 65.2 percent in February. The Employment Index increased 0.7 percentage point in March to 55.9 percent from the February reading of 55.2 percent. The Prices Index increased 4.3 percentage points from the February reading of 54.4 percent to 58.7 percent, indicating that prices increased in March for the 22nd consecutive month. According to the NMI®, 16 non-manufacturing industries reported growth. The non-manufacturing sector’s growth cooled off in March after strong growth in February. Respondents remain mostly optimistic about overall business conditions and the economy. They still have underlying concerns about employment resources and capacity constraints.”

The 16 non-manufacturing industries reporting growth in March — listed in order — are: Construction; Other Services; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Accommodation & Food Services; Public Administration; Mining; Management of Companies & Support Services; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Transportation & Warehousing; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Information; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Utilities; Finance & Insurance; and Wholesale Trade. The two industries that contracted in March are: Educational Services; and Retail Trade.

WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING

  • “Labor is tight and in short supply.” (Accommodation & Food Services)
  • “While we have a slowed down in residential service and install [area], we are still experiencing strength in the new commercial construction area.” (Construction)
  • “Q1 revenue in total on plan or slightly above. Some products slightly below plan. Overall, good start to 2019.” (Finance & Insurance)
  • “Supply expenses are up commensurately with business conditions as business activity has outpaced the budget on average four to six percent for our fiscal cycle that [began] 7/1/18.” (Health Care & Social Assistance)
  • “There is a sense of relief in our industry with the temporary reprieve of the additional tariffs. As of now, we feel this will help us maintain competitive prices and steady margins over the next quarter.” (Management of Companies & Support Services)
  • “Activity level held flat.” (Mining)
  • “Initial surge in business at the beginning of the year has peaked and settled to a more stable level.” (Professional, Scientific & Technical Services)
  • “Locally as construction grows, a shortage of available workers for the industry is occurring for future projects.” (Public Administration)
  • “April is when our real busy season begins and it has arrived early this year, demand is quite strong.” (Real Estate, Rental & Leasing)
  • “Labor, weather and regulatory issues have impacted operations.” (Transportation & Warehousing)

ISM® NON-MANUFACTURING SURVEY RESULTS AT A GLANCE COMPARISON OF ISM® NON-MANUFACTURING AND ISM® MANUFACTURING SURVEYS*

  Non-Manufacturing Manufacturing
Index Series Index Mar Series Index Feb Percent Point Change Direction Rate of Change Trend** (Months) Series Index Mar Series Index Feb Percent Point Change
NMI®/ PMI® 56.1 59.7 -3.6 Growing Slower 110 55.3 54.2 +1.1
Business Activity/ Production 57.4 64.7 -7.3 Growing Slower 116 55.8 54.8 +1.0
New Orders 59.0 65.2 -6.2 Growing Slower 116 57.4 55.5 +1.9
Employment 55.9 55.2 +0.7 Growing Faster 61 57.5 52.3 +5.2
Supplier Deliveries 52.0 53.5 -1.5 Slowing Slower 39 54.2 54.9 -0.7
Inventories 50.0 51.0 -1.0 Unchanged From Growing 1 51.8 53.4 -1.6
Prices 58.7 54.4 +4.3 Increasing Faster 22 54.3 49.4 +4.9
Backlog of Orders 56.5 55.5 +1.0 Growing Faster 15 50.4 52.3 -1.9
New Export Orders 52.5 55.0 -2.5 Growing Slower 26 51.7 52.8 -1.1
Imports 51.5 48.5 +3.0 Growing From Contracting 1 51.1 55.3 -4.2
Inventory Sentiment 62.5 59.0 +3.5 Too High Faster 261 N/A N/A N/A
Customers' Inventories N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 42.7 39.0 +3.7
Overall Economy Growing Slower 116
Non-Manufacturing Sector Growing Slower 110

Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® data is seasonally adjusted for the Business Activity, New Orders, Prices and Employment Indexes. Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® data is seasonally adjusted for New Orders, Production, Employment and Supplier Deliveries Indexes.
*Number of months moving in current direction.


 

February 2019 Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®

NMI® at 59.7%

Business Activity Index at 64.7%
New Orders Index at 65.2%
Employment Index at 55.2%

(Tempe, Arizona) – Economic activity in the non-manufacturing sector grew in February for the 109th consecutive month, say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in the latest Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, CPSM, C.P.M., A.P.P., CFPM, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: “The NMI® registered 59.7 percent, which is 3 percentage points higher than the January reading of 56.7 percent. This represents continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector, at a faster rate. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index increased to 64.7 percent, 5 percentage points higher than the January reading of 59.7 percent, reflecting growth for the 115th consecutive month, at a faster rate in February. The New Orders Index registered 65.2 percent, 7.5 percentage points higher than the reading of 57.7 percent in January. The Employment Index decreased 2.6 percentage points in February to 55.2 percent from the January reading of 57.8 percent. The Prices Index decreased 5 percentage points from the January reading of 59.4 percent to 54.4 percent, indicating that prices increased in February for the 21st consecutive month. According to the NMI®, all 18 non-manufacturing industries reported growth. The non-manufacturing sector’s growth rate rebounded in February after cooling off in January. Respondents are concerned about the uncertainty of tariffs, capacity constraints and employment resources; however, they remain mostly optimistic about overall business conditions and the economy.”

INDUSTRY PERFORMANCE

The 18 non-manufacturing industries reporting growth in February — listed in order — are: Transportation & Warehousing; Management of Companies & Support Services; Wholesale Trade; Mining; Educational Services; Utilities; Other Services; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Construction; Health Care & Social Assistance; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Public Administration; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Finance & Insurance; Information; Accommodation & Food Services; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; and Retail Trade.

WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING

  • “We are anxiously awaiting decisions in the next couple of weeks on the fate of the proposed tariffs on China. High Chinese commitments to agriculture output will put cost pressure on food and restaurant margins.” (Accommodation & Food Services)
  • “The beginning of the year is generally our slowest time of year in the health-care industry. [Activity] will gradually pick up until April, then be steady until the fourth quarter, when there will be a large increase.” (Health Care & Social Assistance)
  • “Still strong in all areas, due mostly to commercial construction activity.” (Construction)
  • “The local economy is doing well. Business lending remains competitive. The rise in interest rates have helped boost our net interest margin.” (Finance & Insurance)
  • “Business continues to stay steady, with little drop off. However, we are more concerned about tariffs in the short term, since there seems to be no agreement. However, we do believe it will be a short-lived issue. In the long term, tariffs will force our suppliers to source elsewhere, which will levy more competition from manufacturers in other low- or non-tariffed countries and even in the U.S. Ultimately, the tariffs will force an improvement to the overall supply chain and better mitigate supply risk in our industry.” (Management of Companies & Support Services)
  • “Increased activity level over the end of 2018.” (Mining)
  • “Business continues [to] improve, and we expect it to continue through 2019. Domestic trucking availability is improving.” (Other Services)
  • “Confidence is returning in the marketplace, but tariff surcharges are still in place.” (Retail Trade)
  • “Tariffs continue to have an impact on our business. The contractor labor shortage continues to be the biggest supply challenge for our company and others in our region and industry.” (Utilities)
  • “Seeing increases in business activity. Projecting strong sales for the month, stable prices and generally good fill rates from suppliers. Some spot outages, mostly due to capacity and planning limitations or shortfalls.” (Wholesale Trade)

ISM® NON-MANUFACTURING SURVEY RESULTS AT A GLANCE COMPARISON OF ISM® NON-MANUFACTURING AND ISM® MANUFACTURING SURVEYS*
FEBRUARY 2019

  Non-Manufacturing Manufacturing
Index Series Index Feb Series Index Jan Percent Point Change Direction Rate of Change Trend** (Months) Series Index Feb Series Index Jan Percent Point Change
NMI®/ PMI® 59.7 56.7 +3.0 Growing Faster 109 54.2 56.6 -2.4
Business Activity/ Production 64.7 59.7 +5.0 Growing Faster 115 54.8 60.5 -5.7
New Orders 65.2 57.7 +7.5 Growing Faster 115 55.5 58.2 -2.7
Employment 55.2 57.8 -2.6 Growing Slower 60 52.3 55.5 -3.2
Supplier Deliveries 53.5 51.5 +2.0 Slowing Faster 38 54.9 56.2 -1.3
Inventories 51.0 49.0 +2.0 Growing From Contracting 1 53.4 52.8 +0.6
Prices 54.4 59.4 -5.0 Increasing Slower 21 49.4 49.6 -0.2
Backlog of Orders 55.5 52.5 +3.0 Growing Faster 14 52.3 50.3 +2.0
New Export Orders 55.0 50.5 +4.5 Growing Faster 25 52.8 51.8 +1.0
Imports 48.5 52.0 -3.5 Contracting From Growing 1 55.3 53.8 +1.5
Inventory Sentiment 59.0 60.5 -1.5 Too High Slower 260 N/A N/A N/A
Customers' Inventories N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 39.0 42.8 -3.8
Overall Economy Growing Faster 115
Non-Manufacturing Sector Growing Faster 109

Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® data is seasonally adjusted for the Business Activity, New Orders, Prices and Employment Indexes. Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® data is seasonally adjusted for New Orders, Production, Employment and Supplier Deliveries Indexes.
*Number of months moving in current direction.


 

January 2019 Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®

NMI® at 56.7%

Business Activity Index at 59.7%
New Orders Index at 57.7%
Employment Index at 57.8%

(Tempe, Arizona) – Economic activity in the non-manufacturing sector grew in January for the 108th consecutive month, say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in the latest Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, CPSM, C.P.M., A.P.P., CFPM, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: “The NMI® registered 56.7 percent, which is 1.3 percentage points lower than the December reading of 58 percent. This represents continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector, at a slower rate. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index decreased to 59.7 percent, 1.5 percentage points lower than the December reading of 61.2 percent, reflecting growth for the 114th consecutive month, at a slower rate in January. The New Orders Index registered 57.7 percent, 5 percentage points lower than the reading of 62.7 percent in December. The Employment Index increased 1.2 percentage points in January to 57.8 percent from the December reading of 56.6 percent. The Prices Index increased 1.4 percentage points from the December reading of 58 percent to 59.4 percent, indicating that prices increased in January for the 20th consecutive month. According to the NMI®, 11 non-manufacturing industries reported growth. The non-manufacturing sector’s growth rate cooled off in January. Respondents are concerned about the impacts of the government shutdown but remain mostly optimistic about overall business conditions.”

The 11 non-manufacturing industries reporting growth in January — listed in order — are: Transportation & Warehousing; Health Care & Social Assistance; Mining; Accommodation & Food Services; Wholesale Trade; Finance & Insurance; Utilities; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Construction; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; and Public Administration. Seven non-manufacturing industries reported contraction in January in the following order: Retail Trade; Educational Services; Information; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Management of Companies & Support Services; and Other Services.

WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING

  • “Business has slowed well below expectations as our customers deal with the effects of economic situations exacerbated by the government shutdown.” (Construction)
  • “The government shutdown is not affecting our business at this time.” (Finance & Insurance)
  • “Prices are volatile due to tariff restrictions.” (Management of Companies & Support Services)
  • “We are trying to hold out through the government shutdown. Currently, our work is continuing with already obligated prior-year funds. We have not had to suspend any activities. The shutdown is affecting the United States Agency for International Development’s [USAID] and the Department of State’s ability to process actions, share information or plan for the future. That is the shutdown’s effect on us. The longer it lasts, the greater the disruption.” (Professional, Scientific & Technical Services)
  • “Apprehension regarding overall economic conditions due to uncertainly of the partial government shutdown, its effect on business climate and lack of national strategic direction. Economic activity remains strong locally; however, there is concern that this may change quickly due to uncertainty and reports of slowing economic indicators.” (Public Administration)
  • “Order input stable, and supplier deliveries growing. The industry is struggling with capacity constraints.” (Real Estate, Rental & Leasing)
  • “Things are steady. We’re trying to mitigate any impact of the tariffs.” (Retail Trade)
  • “The shutdown and potential delay in tax refunds will hurt our business.” (Wholesale Trade)
  • “Central processing unit (CPU) shortages continue to impact fulfillment of orders.” (Transportation & Warehousing)

ISM® NON-MANUFACTURING SURVEY RESULTS AT A GLANCE COMPARISON OF ISM® NON-MANUFACTURING AND ISM® MANUFACTURING SURVEYS*
JANUARY 2019

  Non-Manufacturing Manufacturing
Index Series Index Jan Series Index Dec Percent Point Change Direction Rate of Change Trend** (Months) Series Index Jan Series Index Dec Percent Point Change
NMI®/ PMI® 56.7 58.0 -1.3 Growing Slower 108 56.6 54.3 +2.3
Business Activity/ Production 59.7 61.2 -1.5 Growing Slower 114 60.5 54.1 +6.4
New Orders 57.7 62.7 -5.0 Growing Slower 114 58.2 51.3 +6.9
Employment 57.8 56.6 +1.2 Growing Faster 59 55.5 56.0 -0.5
Supplier Deliveries 51.5 51.5 0.0 Slowing Unchanged 37 56.2 59.0 -2.8
Inventories 49.0 51.5 -2.5 Contracting From Growing 1 52.8 51.2 +1.6
Prices 59.4 58.0 +1.4 Increasing Faster 20 49.6 54.9 -5.3
Backlog of Orders 52.5 50.5 +2.0 Growing Faster 13 50.3 50.0 +0.3
New Export Orders 50.5 59.5 -9.0 Growing Slower 24 51.8 52.8 -1.0
Imports 52.0 53.5 -1.5 Growing Slower 11 53.8 52.7 +1.1
Inventory Sentiment 60.5 59.0 +1.5 Too High Faster 259 N/A N/A N/A
Customers' Inventories N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 42.8 41.7 +1.1
Overall Economy Growing Slower 114
Non-Manufacturing Sector Growing Slower 108

Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® data is seasonally adjusted for the Business Activity, New Orders, Prices and Employment Indexes. Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® data is seasonally adjusted for New Orders, Production, Employment and Supplier Deliveries Indexes.
**Number of months moving in current direction.
Indexes reflect newly released seasonal adjustment factors.


 

December 2018 Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®

NMI® at 57.6%

Business Activity Index at 59.9%
New Orders Index at 62.7%
Employment Index at 56.3%

(Tempe, Arizona) – Economic activity in the non-manufacturing sector grew in December for the 107th consecutive month, say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in the latest Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, CPSM, C.P.M., A.P.P., CFPM, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: “The NMI® registered 57.6 percent, which is 3.1 percentage points lower than the November reading of 60.7 percent. This represents continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector, at a slower rate. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index decreased to 59.9 percent, 5.3 percentage points lower than the November reading of 65.2 percent, reflecting growth for the 113th consecutive month, at a slower rate in December. The New Orders Index registered 62.7 percent, 0.2 percentage point higher than the reading of 62.5 percent in November. The Employment Index decreased 2.1 percentage points in December to 56.3 percent from the November reading of 58.4 percent. The Prices Index decreased 6.7 percentage points from the November reading of 64.3 percent to 57.6 percent, indicating that prices increased in December for the 34th consecutive month. According to the NMI®, 16 non-manufacturing industries reported growth. The non-manufacturing sector’s growth rate cooled off in December. Respondents indicate that there still is concern about tariffs, despite the hold on increases by the U.S. and China. Also, comments reflect that capacity constraints have lessened; however, employment-resource challenges remain. Respondents are mostly optimistic about overall business conditions.”

The 16 non-manufacturing industries reporting growth in December — listed in order — are: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Transportation & Warehousing; Health Care & Social Assistance; Retail Trade; Information; Utilities; Accommodation & Food Services; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Public Administration; Other Services; Finance & Insurance; Wholesale Trade; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Educational Services; Construction; and Management of Companies & Support Services. The only industry reporting a decrease in December is Mining.

WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING

  • “New residential home sales have slowed significantly. Tariff delay has slowed material cost increases, but all indications are that January will bring price increases.” (Construction)
  • “Economy still chugging along, despite the rise in interest rates and relentless political claptrap. Mid-winter [activity] appears to be helping a variety of sectors, including agriculture and construction.” (Finance & Insurance)
  • “Overall, our year-end outlook is positive. We are already receiving converted RFPs to orders for 2019. Based on the uncertainty of the tariffs, we have advised our clients to make purchases early in first quarter 2019, if possible, to save money. There is concern in our industry regarding the full year due to tariffs, unless a deal can be reconciled with China. We expect lower profit margins and reduced sales for 2019 until our suppliers can source product from other countries, which may not be until late [in the year].” (Management of Companies & Support Services)
  • “Business is still on an uptrend. Receiving more inquiries for training going into new year.” (Professional, Scientific & Technical Services)
  • “Steady demand and supply. Finding qualified employees is a challenge.” (Public Administration)
  • “Business is exceeding expectations. 2019 should equate or exceed 2018.” (Real Estate, Rental & Leasing)
  • “Business is very good. Strong demand and pipeline.” (Retail Trade)
  • “The end of the year continues to be busy, with high load factor.” (Transportation & Warehousing)
  • “Overall, the industry looks to have a pullback year in demand for 2019. Several factors are contributing to this: stock market retraction, tariffs, trade dispute with China, higher mortgage rates, higher home prices, stagnant wage growth, labor shortages and higher material costs.” (Wholesale Trade)

ISM® NON-MANUFACTURING SURVEY RESULTS AT A GLANCE COMPARISON OF ISM® NON-MANUFACTURING AND ISM® MANUFACTURING SURVEYS*
DECEMBER 2018

  Non-Manufacturing Manufacturing
Index Series Index Dec Series Index Nov Percent Point Change Direction Rate of Change Trend** (Months) Series Index Dec Series Index Nov Percent Point Change
NMI®/ PMI® 57.6 60.7 -3.1 Growing Slower 107 54.1 59.3 -5.2
Business Activity/ Production 59.9 65.2 -5.3 Growing Slower 113 54.3 60.6 -6.3
New Orders 62.7 62.5 +0.2 Growing Faster 95 51.1 62.1 -11.0
Employment 56.3 58.4 -2.1 Growing Slower 58 56.2 58.4 -2.2
Supplier Deliveries 51.5 56.5 -5.0 Slowing Slower 36 57.5 62.5 -5.0
Inventories 51.5 57.5 -6.0 Growing Slower 11 51.2 52.9 -1.7
Prices 57.6 64.3 -6.7 Increasing Slower 34 54.9 60.7 -5.8
Backlog of Orders 50.5 55.5 -5.0 Growing Slower 12 50.0 56.4 -6.4
New Export Orders 59.5 57.5 +2.0 Growing Faster 23 52.8 52.2 +0.6
Imports 53.5 54.5 -1.0 Growing Slower 10 52.7 53.6 -0.9
Inventory Sentiment 59.0 60.0 -1.0 Too High Slower 259 N/A N/A N/A
Customers' Inventories N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 41.7 41.5 +0.2
Overall Economy Growing Slower 112
Non-Manufacturing Sector Growing Slower 107

Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® data is seasonally adjusted for the Business Activity, New Orders, Prices and Employment Indexes. Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® data is seasonally adjusted for New Orders, Production, Employment and Supplier Deliveries Indexes.
*Number of months moving in current direction.


 

November 2018 Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®

NMI® at 60.7%

Business Activity Index at 65.2%
New Orders Index at 62.5%
Employment Index at 58.4%

(Tempe, Arizona) – Economic activity in the non-manufacturing sector grew in November for the 106th consecutive month, say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in the latest Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, CPSM, C.P.M., A.P.P., CFPM, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: “The NMI® registered 60.7 percent, which is 0.4 percentage point higher than the October reading of 60.3 percent. This represents continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector, at a slightly faster rate. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index increased to 65.2 percent, 2.7 percentage points higher than the October reading of 62.5 percent, reflecting growth for the 112th consecutive month, at a faster rate in November. The New Orders Index registered 62.5 percent, 1 percentage point higher than the reading of 61.5 percent in October. The Employment Index decreased 1.3 percentage points in November to 58.4 percent from the October reading of 59.7 percent. The Prices Index rose 2.6 percentage points from the October reading of 61.7 percent to 64.3 percent, indicating that prices increased in November for the 33rd consecutive month. According to the NMI®, 17 non-manufacturing industries reported growth. The non-manufacturing sector continued to reflect strong growth in November. However, concerns persist about employment resources and the impact of tariffs. Respondents remain positive about current business conditions and the direction of the economy.”

The 17 non-manufacturing industries reporting growth in November — listed in order — are: Educational Services; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Transportation & Warehousing; Construction; Wholesale Trade; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Management of Companies & Support Services; Information; Finance & Insurance; Retail Trade; Other Services; Mining; Accommodation & Food Services; Public Administration; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; and Utilities. The only industry reporting a decrease in November is Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting.

WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING

  • “Relatively stable business conditions. Input costs are corn- and soy-based, so the ongoing trade dispute with China presents challenges and opportunities. The chief dilemmas are: When will the dispute be resolved, and what will the market reaction be?” (Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting)
  • “Commercial construction is strong. Employment is struggling due to lack of qualified talent.” (Construction)
  • “Midway through Q4, and on track for another good year. Conditions are favorable and look to remain so going into 2019.” (Finance & Insurance)
  • “Business is booming. Labor costs are rising.” (Information)
  • “November continues our busy season, at a higher rate than we anticipated. Both internal and supplier resources have had success gaining some ground back on backlog of orders. A large volume of orders is always expected this time of year, but this year, it has been busier than our organization and suppliers anticipated.” (Management of Companies & Support Services)
  • “Business continues to improve internationally, but there is a slowdown in domestics offshore and leveling in domestic onshore, which directly affects our business. There are concerns about domestic trucking and international flat rack availability. There is also discussion of implementation of trucking e-log requirements in Mexico sometime in 2019 or 2020. That could affect our trucking providers’ lead time for delivery-support services in the Mexican region.” (Other Services)
  • “The imposition of and threats to impose tariffs are having a negative effect on several capital-improvement projects in progress. The contractors have submitted change order requests for those items impacted, especially those with a steel component. The increases are not expected or budgeted for.” (Public Administration
  • “The business is preparing for the later phases of tariffs by slowing down growth and capital investment until the future becomes clearer. We are starting to pull months of inventory in before the next round of tariffs hit, so there is a lot of activity on our logistics side.” (Retail Trade)
  • “We are still experiencing low service levels with transportation.” (Wholesale Trade)

ISM® NON-MANUFACTURING SURVEY RESULTS AT A GLANCE COMPARISON OF ISM® NON-MANUFACTURING AND ISM® MANUFACTURING SURVEYS*
NOVEMBER 2018

  Non-Manufacturing Manufacturing
Index Series Index Nov Series Index Oct Percent Point Change Direction Rate of Change Trend** (Months) Series Index Nov Series Index Oct Percent Point Change
NMI®/ PMI® 60.7 60.3 +0.4 Growing Faster 106 59.3 57.7 +1.6
Business Activity/ Production 65.2 62.5 +2.7 Growing Faster 112 60.6 59.9 +0.7
New Orders 62.5 61.5 +1.0 Growing Faster 94 62.1 57.4 +4.7
Employment 58.4 59.7 -1.3 Growing Slower 57 58.4 56.8 +1.6
Supplier Deliveries 56.5 57.5 -1.0 Slowing Slower 35 62.5 63.8 -1.3
Inventories 57.5 56.0 +1.5 Growing Faster 10 52.9 50.7 +2.2
Prices 64.3 61.7 +2.6 Increasing Faster 33 60.7 71.6 -10.9
Backlog of Orders 55.5 53.5 +2.0 Growing Faster 11 56.4 55.8 +0.6
New Export Orders 57.5 61.0 -3.5 Growing Slower 22 52.2 52.2 0.0
Imports 54.5 51.0 +3.5 Growing Faster 9 53.6 54.3 -0.7
Inventory Sentiment 60.0 62.0 -2.0 Too High Slower 258 N/A N/A N/A
Customers' Inventories N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 41.5 43.3 -1.8
Overall Economy Growing Faster 111
Non-Manufacturing Sector Growing Faster 106

Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® data is seasonally adjusted for the Business Activity, New Orders, Prices and Employment Indexes.
Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® data is seasonally adjusted for New Orders, Production, Employment and Supplier Deliveries Indexes. *Number of months moving in current direction.


 

October 2018 Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®

NMI® at 60.3%

Business Activity Index at 62.5%
New Orders Index at 61.5%
Employment Index at 59.7%

(Tempe, Arizona) – Economic activity in the non-manufacturing sector grew in October for the 105th consecutive month, say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in the latest Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, CPSM, C.P.M., A.P.P., CFPM, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: “The NMI® registered 60.3 percent, which is 1.3 percentage points lower than the September reading of 61.6 percent. This represents continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector at a slower rate. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index decreased to 62.5 percent, 2.7 percentage points lower than the September reading of 65.2 percent, reflecting growth for the 111th consecutive month, at a slower rate in October. The New Orders Index registered 61.5 percent, 0.1 percentage point lower than the reading of 61.6 percent in September. The Employment Index decreased 2.7 percentage points in October to 59.7 percent from the September reading of 62.4 percent. The Prices Index decreased 2.5 percentage points from the September reading of 64.2 percent to 61.7 percent, indicating that prices increased in October for the 32nd consecutive month. According to the NMI®, 17 non-manufacturing industries reported growth. The non-manufacturing sector has again reflected strong growth despite a slight cooling off after a record month in September. There are continued concerns about capacity, logistics and tariffs. The respondents are positive about current business conditions and the economy.”

INDUSTRY PERFORMANCE

The 17 non-manufacturing industries reporting growth in October — listed in order — are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Information; Transportation & Warehousing; Utilities; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Construction; Health Care & Social Assistance; Management of Companies & Support Services; Wholesale Trade; Public Administration; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Accommodation & Food Services; Mining; Finance & Insurance; Retail Trade; and Other Services. The only industry reporting a decrease in October is Educational Services.

WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING

  • “Tariffs are beginning to impact business. We ask our suppliers to hold pricing for six months, but we are experiencing difficulties.” (Construction)
  • “Wrapping up fiscal year budgets [and] seeing modest increases in volume and spend. Some price increases due to tariffs on computers/peripherals.” (Finance & Insurance)
  • “Stable at the moment. Still continuing to look at opportunities to reduce costs and improve efficiencies.” (Health Care & Social Assistance)
  • “The promotional-products trade continues to stay strong going into the end of the year. This reflects the overall macroeconomics of how the economy is doing thus far. We have not yet begun to see the impacts on prices due to the additional tariffs against China. We anticipate that price increases may start to work into the supply chain early in the first quarter.” (Management of Companies & Support Services)
  • “It has been very difficult to make decisions due to instability brought by the latest trading dispute. In this environment, clients tend to postpone capital-expenditure decisions.” (Mining)
  • “Increasing oil prices should provide an uptick in customer orders for our services in the fourth quarter. Conversely, it will likely lead to higher prices for consumables, specifically bulk chemicals and plastics. Also, hiring is becoming an issue, as finding suitable workers is more difficult as time passes.” (Professional, Scientific & Technical Services)
  • “September 30 was the last day of the fiscal year. To close out the year and transition to the new year, activity levels will be different from the usual. Economic growth continues to be high, especially related to construction projects. As such, construction contractors, sub-contractors and labor remain in short supply.” (Public Administration)
  • “Business has been strong. Continuing momentum seen in past month. Anticipating continued strong sales through remainder of the year.” (Retail Trade)
  • “Transportation capacity shortages remain our largest challenge.” (Wholesale Trade)
  • “There was a slight seasonal drop in activity as the school year commenced [because] most orders we placed and received were in the quarter preceding the school year.” (Educational Services)

ISM® NON-MANUFACTURING SURVEY RESULTS AT A GLANCE
COMPARISON OF ISM® NON-MANUFACTURING AND ISM® MANUFACTURING SURVEYS*
OCTOBER 2018

  Non-Manufacturing Manufacturing
Index Series Index Oct Series Index Sep Percent Point Change Direction Rate of Change Trend** (Months) Series Index Oct Series Index Sep Percent Point Change
NMI®/ PMI® 60.3 61.6 -1.3 Growing Slower 105 57.7 59.8 -2.1
Business Activity/ Production 62.5 65.2 -2.7 Growing Slower 111 59.9 63.9 -4.0
New Orders 61.5 61.6 -0.1 Growing Slower 93 57.4 61.8 -4.4
Employment 59.7 62.4 -2.7 Growing Slower 56 56.8 58.8 -2.0
Supplier Deliveries 57.5 57.0 +0.5 Slowing Faster 34 63.8 61.1 +2.7
Inventories 56.0 54.5 +1.5 Growing Faster 9 50.7 53.3 -2.6
Prices 61.7 64.2 -2.5 Increasing Slower 32 71.6 66.9 +4.7
Backlog of Orders 53.5 58.5 -5.0 Growing Slower 10 55.8 55.7 +0.1
New Export Orders 61.0 61.0 0.0 Growing Same 21 52.2 56.0 -3.8
Imports 51.0 55.0 -4.0 Growing Slower 8 54.3 54.5 -0.2
Inventory Sentiment 62.0 59.5 +2.5 Too High Faster 257 N/A N/A N/A
Customers' Inventories N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 43.3 40.5 +2.8
Overall Economy Growing Slower 110
Non-Manufacturing Sector Growing Slower 105

Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®data is seasonally adjusted for the Business Activity, New Orders, Prices and Employment Indexes
Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®data is seasonally adjusted for New Orders, Production, Employment and Supplier Deliveries Indexes. *Number of months moving in current direction.


 

September 2018 Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®

NMI® at 61.6%

Business Activity Index at 65.2%
New Orders Index at 61.6%
Employment Index at 62.4%

(Tempe, Arizona) — Economic activity in the non-manufacturing sector grew in September for the 104th consecutive month, say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in the latest Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, CPSM, C.P.M., A.P.P., CFPM, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: “The NMI® registered 61.6 percent, which is 3.1 percentage points higher than the August reading of 58.5 percent. This represents continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector at a faster rate and is an all-time high for the NMI® since the inception of the composite index in 2008. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index increased to 65.2 percent, 4.5 percentage points higher than the August reading of 60.7 percent, reflecting growth for the 110th consecutive month, at a faster rate in September. The New Orders Index registered 61.6 percent, 1.2 percentage points higher than the reading of 60.4 percent in August. The Employment Index increased 5.7 percentage points in September to 62.4 percent from the August reading of 56.7 percent. The Prices Index increased by 1.4 percentage points from the August reading of 62.8 percent to 64.2 percent, indicating that prices increased in September for the 31st consecutive month. According to the NMI®, 17 non-manufacturing industries reported growth. The non-manufacturing sector has had two consecutive months of strong growth since the ‘cooling off’ in July. Overall, respondents remain positive about business conditions and the current and future economy. Concerns remain about capacity, logistics and the uncertainty with global trade.”

INDUSTRY PERFORMANCE The 17 non-manufacturing industries reporting growth in September — listed in order — are: Mining; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Wholesale Trade; Management of Companies & Support Services; Construction; Retail Trade; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Transportation & Warehousing; Information; Accommodation & Food Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Public Administration; Other Services; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Finance & Insurance; and Utilities. No industry reported a decrease in September.

WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING

  • “[Additional] logistics costs, both inbound and distribution, caused by increased governmental regulation, and a shortage of class-A drivers is leading to a significant increase in [the] cost of goods [sold].” (Accommodation & Food Services)
  • “New residential construction market is still strong, with a good backlog of orders. Labor shortages and tariffs on materials continue to negatively weigh on earnings.” (Construction)
  • “Economy continues to exhibit strength. New construction, both residential and commercial, abounds. Harvest [is] about over. Overall, results appear promising. Every day is a bit better than the last.” (Finance & Insurance)
  • “Business activity has been slightly higher than normal, though pharmaceutical costs continue to put pressure on profitability.” (Health Care & Social Assistance)
  • “Starting peak holiday season ramp-up, [with] heavy importing. Building inventories of finished goods, replacement parts and supplies. Outlook very positive for [the] holidays and 2019.” (Information)
  • “Business generally remains strong, with new services being implemented.” (Management of Companies & Support Services)
  • “Prices and supply have flattened, and tariff concerns have subsided for our business [at least for the duration of 2018]. Things seems to be stabilizing.” (Mining)
  • “Overall positive outlook in the economy continues, but we are cautious due to limitations in available manpower.” (Professional, Scientific & Technical Services)
  • “Business activity is up sharply due to the rush of purchase requests received prior to fiscal year 2018 funds expiring on September 30.” (Public Administration)
  • “Our general state of business is strong, but there is a lot of uncertainty [about] the pending tariffs. This may cause a shift [in] production sites.” (Retail Trade)
  • “Import tariffs on steel, plywood, and [other] lumber are inflating prices, which are difficult to pass along to the end user due to competitive pressures. Labor and trucking shortages are affecting the industry. Low finished goods inventory is inflating home prices and causing buyers to delay purchases.” (Wholesale Trade)

ISM® NON-MANUFACTURING SURVEY RESULTS AT A GLANCE
COMPARISON OF ISM® NON-MANUFACTURING AND ISM® MANUFACTURING SURVEYS*
SEPTEMBER 2018

  Non-Manufacturing Manufacturing
Index Series Index Sep Series Index Aug Percent Point Change Direction Rate of Change Trend** (Months) Series Index Sep Series Index Aug Percent Point Change
NMI®/ PMI® 61.6 58.5 +3.1 Growing Faster 104 59.8 61.3 -1.5
Business Activity/ Production 65.2 60.7 +4.5 Growing Faster 110 63.9 63.3 +0.6
New Orders 61.6 60.4 +1.2 Growing Faster 92 61.8 65.1 -3.3
Employment 62.4 56.7 +5.7 Growing Faster 55 58.8 58.5 +0.3
Supplier Deliveries 57.0 56.0 +1.0 Slowing Faster 33 61.1 64.5 -3.4
Inventories 54.5 53.5 +1.0 Growing Faster 8 53.3 55.4 -2.1
Prices 64.2 62.8 +1.4 Increasing Faster 31 66.9 72.1 -5.2
Backlog of Orders 58.5 56.5 +2.0 Growing Faster 9 55.7 57.5 -1.8
New Export Orders 61.0 60.5 +0.5 Growing Faster 20 56.0 55.2 +0.8
Imports 55.0 52.0 +3.0 Growing Faster 7 54.5 53.9 +0.6
Inventory Sentiment 59.5 59.5 0.0 Too High Same 256 N/A N/A N/A
Customers' Inventories N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 40.5 41.0 -0.5
Overall Economy Growing Faster 109
Non-Manufacturing Sector Growing Faster 104

Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® data is seasonally adjusted for the Business Activity, New Orders, Prices and Employment Indexes. Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® data is seasonally adjusted for New Orders, Production, Employment and Supplier Deliveries Indexes.
*Number of months moving in current direction.


 

August 2018 Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®

NMI® at 58.5%

Business Activity Index at 60.7%
New Orders Index at 60.4%
Employment Index at 56.7%

(Tempe, Arizona) – Economic activity in the non-manufacturing sector grew in August for the 103rd consecutive month, say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in the latest Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, CPSM, C.P.M., A.P.P., CFPM, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: “The NMI® registered 58.5 percent, which is 2.8 percentage points higher than the July reading of 55.7 percent. This represents continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector at a faster rate. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index increased to 60.7 percent, 4.2 percentage points higher than the July reading of 56.5 percent, reflecting growth for the 109th consecutive month, at a faster rate in August. The New Orders Index registered 60.4 percent, 3.4 percentage points higher than the reading of 57 percent in July. The Employment Index increased 0.6 percentage point in August to 56.7 percent from the July reading of 56.1 percent. The Prices Index decreased by 0.6 percentage point from the July reading of 63.4 percent to 62.8 percent, indicating that prices increased in August for the 30th consecutive month. According to the NMI®, 16 non-manufacturing industries reported growth. There was a strong rebound for the non-manufacturing sector in August after growth ‘cooled off’ in July. Logistics, tariffs and employment resources continue to have an impact on many of the respective industries. Overall, the respondents remain positive about business conditions and the economy.”

The 16 non-manufacturing industries reporting growth in August — listed in order — are: Construction; Transportation & Warehousing; Retail Trade; Educational Services; Other Services; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Public Administration; Management of Companies & Support Services; Wholesale Trade; Mining; Accommodation & Food Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Finance & Insurance; Utilities; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; and Information. The only industry reporting a decrease is Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting.

WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING

  • “Tariff-related cost increases are beginning to accelerate, whether tariffs have been put into effect or not.” (Construction)
  • “Our business continues to increase, perhaps linked to the general economy and aging baby boomers.” (Health Care & Social Assistance)
  • “Government tariffs are negatively impacting production and recycling sales. Pulp costs have gone up, and that has directly impacted paper for our newspaper production and copy paper. A 10-percent tariff has been placed on aluminum, [which] is used to make production plates. Those used plates are put on the recycling market, which China has put a tariff on. These dynamics have a significant impact on newspaper margins.” (Information)
  • “Business for August is surprisingly higher for our company compared to last month and YOY [year over year]. Based on current trends on customer quote requests and conversions to orders, we are trending for this month to be the best August in the history of our company.” (Management of Companies & Support Services)
  • “The global tariff war, [with] steel in particular, has driven the cost of goods higher.” (Mining)
  • “Oil and gas hiring continues to increase, particularly in the oil-field services sector. Capital-project activity is strong in the downstream, petrochemical, midstream and onshore drilling sectors. New investment in deepwater drilling projects remains low.” (Professional, Scientific & Technical Services)
  • “Business activity is markedly higher now that the government is in the fourth quarter of its fiscal year and agencies need to obligate their fiscal year 2018 funds. Many contracts expiring in this time frame require renewal.” (Public Administration)
  • “Overall, business has increased. Many factors can be attributed to this increase in demand, [including] the budget and positive outlook on the economy.” (Real Estate, Rental & Leasing)
  • “Solid Q2 results, beating estimates all around. Since we are a services business, the tariffs have little impact [at this point] but are nonetheless a consideration. We do harbor future concerns about the general cost of goods from overseas and the effects on consumer pricing. In the labor market, we have seen a noticeable increase in difficulty to attract and retain talent at all levels. We have begun taking steps to change compensation packages to combat this issue.” (Retail Trade)
  • “Demand for transportation has started earlier than normal with the rail [industry] announcing peak season surcharges that were effective August 1. We are having to re-adjust inventory levels sooner than anticipated.” (Wholesale Trade)

ISM® NON-MANUFACTURING SURVEY RESULTS AT A GLANCE
COMPARISON OF ISM® NON-MANUFACTURING AND ISM® MANUFACTURING SURVEYS*
AUGUST 2018

  Non-Manufacturing Manufacturing
Index Series Index Aug Series Index Jul Percent Point Change Direction Rate of Change Trend** (Months) Series Index Aug Series Index Jul Percent Point Change
NMI®/ PMI® 58.5 55.7 +2.8 Growing Faster 103 61.3 58.1 +3.2
Business Activity/ Production 60.7 56.5 +4.2 Growing Faster 109 63.3 58.5 +4.8
New Orders 60.4 57.0 +3.4 Growing Faster 91 65.1 60.2 +4.9
Employment 56.7 56.1 +0.6 Growing Faster 54 58.5 56.5 +2.0
Supplier Deliveries 56.0 53.0 +3.0 Slowing Faster 32 64.5 62.1 +2.4
Inventories 53.5 53.5 0.0 Growing Same 7 55.4 53.3 +2.1
Prices 62.8 63.4 -0.6 Increasing Slower 30 72.1 73.2 -1.1
Backlog of Orders 56.5 51.5 +5.0 Growing Faster 8 57.5 54.7 +2.8
New Export Orders 60.5 58.0 +2.5 Growing Faster 19 55.2 55.3 -0.1
Imports 52.0 52.5 -0.5 Growing Slower 6 53.9 54.7 -0.8
Inventory Sentiment 59.5 58.0 +1.5 Too High Faster 255 N/A N/A N/A
Customers' Inventories N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 41.0 39.4 +1.6
Overall Economy Growing Faster 108
Non-Manufacturing Sector Growing Faster 103

*Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® data is seasonally adjusted for the Business Activity, New Orders, Prices and Employment Indexes. Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® data is seasonally adjusted for New Orders, Production, Employment and Supplier Deliveries Indexes.

**Number of months moving in current direction.


 

July 2018 Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®

NMI® at 55.7%

Business Activity Index at 56.5%
New Orders Index at 57.0%
Employment Index at 56.1%

(Tempe, Arizona) – Economic activity in the non-manufacturing sector grew in July for the 102nd consecutive month, say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in the latest Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, CPSM, C.P.M., A.P.P., CFPM, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: “The NMI® registered 55.7 percent, which is 3.4 percentage points lower than the June reading of 59.1 percent. This represents continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector at a slower rate. There was a notable decrease in the Business Activity Index, which fell to 56.5 percent, 7.4 percentage points lower than the June reading of 63.9 percent. The July figure still reflects growth for the 108th consecutive month, at a slower rate. The New Orders Index registered 57 percent, 6.2 percentage points lower than the reading of 63.2 percent in June. The Employment Index increased 2.5 percentage points in July to 56.1 percent from the June reading of 53.6 percent. The Prices Index increased by 2.7 percentage points from the June reading of 60.7 percent to 63.4 percent, indicating that prices increased in July for the 29th consecutive month. According to the NMI®, 16 non-manufacturing industries reported growth. There has been a ‘cooling off’ in growth for the non-manufacturing sector. Tariffs and deliveries are an ongoing concern. The majority of respondents remain positive about business conditions and the economy.”

INDUSTRY PERFORMANCE

The 16 non-manufacturing industries reporting growth in July — listed in order — are: Mining; Public Administration; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Accommodation & Food Services; Other Services; Construction; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Transportation & Warehousing; Finance & Insurance; Retail Trade; Wholesale Trade; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Information; Utilities; Health Care & Social Assistance; and Management of Companies & Support Services. The two industries reporting a decrease are: Educational Services; and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services.

WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING

  • “Business is strong in both our commercial-construction and residential-service areas.” (Construction)
  • “Current local and national conditions are good. On track to meet goals and projections for 2018.” (Finance & Insurance)
  • “There has been little change in business activity, despite all of the political turmoil. Patients get sick regardless of what is going on in the economy.” (Health Care & Social Assistance)
  • “Vendors continue to report that they are seeing significant increases in order volume this year. They report having to hire more staff to keep up with the increase in orders.” (Management of Companies & Support Services)
  • “Tariffs continue to make steel pricing volatile. Crude oil has trended over (US)$70 a barrel, which provides a bullish outlook for the duration of 2018.” (Mining)
  • “The improving U.S. economy is having a positive impact on our sales growth in all business sectors, with oil and gas taking the lead.” (Other Services)
  • “Generally optimistic. High labor-participation rates, but a GDP (gross domestic product) forecast of about 4 percent is tempered by tariff issues with China and the European Union.” (Professional, Scientific & Technical Services)
  • “Expanding concerns with price increases due to tariff and global trade policy changes and uncertainty. Receiving more requests from suppliers for price increases due to changes in the costs of steel, aluminum and the like.” (Public Administration)
  • “Business is up overall, but a lot of questions loom over the rest of the year. These include concerns about international markets and the increasing tariffs that impact the landed costs of goods.” (Retail Trade)
  • “Import tariffs on wood and steel. Shortages of rail cars, truck drivers and skilled labor. High-priced construction materials.” (Wholesale Trade)

ISM® NON-MANUFACTURING SURVEY RESULTS AT A GLANCE
COMPARISON OF ISM® NON-MANUFACTURING AND ISM® MANUFACTURING SURVEYS*
JULY 2018

  Non-Manufacturing Manufacturing
Index Series
Index
Jul
Series
Index
Jun
Percent
Point
Change
Direction Rate
of
Change
Trend**
(Months)
Series
Index
Jul
Series
Index
Jun
Percent
Point
Change
NMI®/PMI® 55.7 59.1 -3.4 Growing Slower 102 58.1 60.2 -2.1
Business Activity/Production 56.5 63.9 -7.4 Growing Slower 108 58.5 62.3 -3.8
New Orders 57.0 63.2 -6.2 Growing Slower 90 60.2 63.5 -3.3
Employment 56.1 53.6 +2.5 Growing Faster 53 56.5 56.0 +0.5
Supplier Deliveries 53.0 55.5 -2.5 Slowing Slower 31 62.1 68.2 -6.1
Inventories 53.5 53.5 0.0 Growing Same 6 53.3 50.8 +2.5
Prices 63.4 60.7 +2.7 Increasing Faster 29 73.2 76.8 -3.6
Backlog of Orders 51.5 56.5 -5.0 Growing Slower 7 54.7 60.1 -5.4
New Export Orders 58.0 60.5 -2.5 Growing Slower 18 55.3 56.3 -1.0
Imports 52.5 51.5 +1.0 Growing Faster 5 54.7 59.0 -4.3
Inventory Sentiment 58.0 57.5 +0.5 Too High Faster 254 N/A N/A N/A
Customers' Inventories N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 39.4 39.7 -0.3
Overall Economy Growing Slower 107
Non-Manufacturing Sector Growing Slower 102

*Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® data is seasonally adjusted for the Business Activity, New Orders, Prices and Employment Indexes. Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® data is seasonally adjusted for New Orders, Production, Employment and Supplier Deliveries.

**Number of months moving in current direction.


 

June 2018 Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®

NMI® at 59.1%

Business Activity Index at 63.9%
New Orders Index at 63.2%

Employment Index at 53.6%

(Tempe, Arizona) — Economic activity in the non-manufacturing sector grew in June for the 101st consecutive month, say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in the latest Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, CPSM, C.P.M., A.P.P., CFPM, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: “The NMI® registered 59.1 percent, which is 0.5 percentage point higher than the May reading of 58.6 percent. This represents continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector at a slightly faster rate. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index increased to 63.9 percent, 2.6 percentage points higher than the May reading of 61.3 percent, reflecting growth for the 107th consecutive month, at a faster rate in June. The New Orders Index registered 63.2 percent, 2.7 percentage points higher than the reading of 60.5 percent in May. The Employment Index decreased 0.5 percentage point in June to 53.6 percent from the May reading of 54.1 percent. The Prices Index decreased by 3.6 percentage points from the May reading of 64.3 percent to 60.7 percent, indicating that prices increased in June for the 28th consecutive month. According to the NMI®, 17 non-manufacturing industries reported growth. Respondents continue to be optimistic about business conditions and the overall economy. There is a continuing concern relating to tariffs, capacity constraints and delivery.”

INDUSTRY PERFORMANCE

The 17 non-manufacturing industries reported growth in June — listed in order — are: Mining; Construction; Wholesale Trade; Retail Trade; Public Administration; Educational Services; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Management of Companies & Support Services; Transportation & Warehousing; Health Care & Social Assistance; Utilities; Finance & Insurance; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Other Services; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Information; and Accommodation & Food Services. The only industry reporting a decrease is Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting.

WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING

  • “Tariffs, freight [issues] and labor shortages continue to have an inflationary influence on costs.” (Construction)
  • “Positive outlook — business activity on the uptick.” (Finance & Insurance)
  • “Shortage of IV solutions and drugs continues to be an issue.” (Health Care & Social Assistance)
  • “Crude prices are causing concern, as it is a driver in newsprint inks. Tariffs on paper and aluminum are causing apprehension about future pricing. Suppliers are posturing and threatening price increases, and we are doing our best to reject increases.” (Information)
  • “Trade tariffs are creating price uncertainty.” (Management of Companies & Support Services)
  • “Domestically, we are still experiencing a shortage of transportation providers that is getting worse each month when retiring drivers or drivers moving into other opportunities are not being replaced. Internationally, there is a shortage of flat racks [that] has caused late shipments. The tariffs on steel and aluminum have also had some negative effects on our supply of material, but we have applied for exemptions.” (Other Services)
  • “Oil price stabilization has led to increased hiring in some sectors of the industry, as well as a small increase in major capital projects for offshore drilling companies. Oil-field services hiring continues to be strong, as does hiring and capital spending in the petrochemical and downstream sectors of the industry.” (Professional, Scientific & Technical Services)
  • “Commodity prices [are] increasing due to demand and transportation costs.” (Public Administration)
  • “Sales have remained strong and are continuing to increase. Currently, we are on pace for a top-line record. The bottom line is more flat, as we have been fighting commodity cost increases and exchange-rate variances throughout the first half of 2018.” (Retail Trade)
  • “Wire sales improve as contractors ramp up with the rise in copper. We’re seeing ongoing price increases in nearly all commodities due to higher freight expenses by manufacturers and shortage of truck drivers.” (Wholesale Trade)

ISM® NON-MANUFACTURING SURVEY RESULTS AT A GLANCE
COMPARISON OF ISM® NON-MANUFACTURING AND ISM® MANUFACTURING SURVEYS*
JUNE 2018

  Non-Manufacturing Manufacturing
Index Series
Index
Jun
Series
Index
May
Percent
Point
Change
Direction Rate
of
Change
Trend**
(Months)
Series
Index
Jun
Series
Index
May
Percent
Point
Change
NMI®/PMI® 59.1 58.6 +0.5 Growing Faster 101 60.2 58.7 +1.5
Business Activity/Production 63.9 61.3 +2.6 Growing Faster 107 62.3 61.5 +0.8
New Orders 63.2 60.5 +2.7 Growing Faster 89 63.5 63.7 -0.2
Employment 53.6 54.1 -0.5 Growing Slower 52 56.0 56.3 -0.3
Supplier Deliveries 55.5 58.5 -3.0 Slowing Slower 30 68.2 62.0 +6.2
Inventories 53.5 57.5 -4.0 Growing Slower 5 50.8 50.2 +0.6
Prices 60.7 64.3 -3.6 Increasing Slower 28 76.8 79.5 -2.7
Backlog of Orders 56.5 60.5 -4.0 Growing Slower 6 60.1 63.5 -3.4
New Export Orders 60.5 57.5 +3.0 Growing Faster 17 56.3 55.6 +0.7
Imports 51.5 54.0 -2.5 Growing Slower 4 59.0 54.1 +4.9
Inventory Sentiment 57.5 61.0 -3.5 Too High Slower 253 N/A N/A N/A
Customers' Inventories N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 39.7 39.6 +0.1
Overall Economy Growing Faster 106
Non-Manufacturing Sector Growing Faster 101

*Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® data is seasonally adjusted for the Business Activity, New Orders, Prices and Employment Indexes. Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® data is seasonally adjusted for New Orders, Production, Employment and Supplier Deliveries.

**Number of months moving in current direction.


 

May 2018 Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®

NMI® at 58.6%

Business Activity Index at 61.3%
New Orders Index at 60.5%
Employment Index at 54.1%

(Tempe, Arizona) — Economic activity in the non-manufacturing sector grew in May for the 100th consecutive month, say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in the latest Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, CPSM, C.P.M., A.P.P., CFPM, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: “The NMI® registered 58.6 percent, which is 1.8 percentage points higher than the April reading of 56.8 percent. This represents continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector at a faster rate. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index increased to 61.3 percent, 2.2 percentage points higher than the April reading of 59.1 percent, reflecting growth for the 106th consecutive month, at a faster rate in May. The New Orders Index registered 60.5 percent, 0.5 percentage point higher than the reading of 60 percent in April. The Employment Index increased 0.5 percentage point in May to 54.1 percent from the April reading of 53.6 percent. The Prices Index increased by 2.5 percentage points from the April reading of 61.8 percent to 64.3 percent, indicating that prices increased in May for the 27th consecutive month. According to the NMI®, 14 non-manufacturing industries reported growth. The majority of respondents are optimistic about business conditions and the overall economy. There continue to be concerns about the uncertainty surrounding tariffs, trade agreements and the impact on cost of goods sold.”

INDUSTRY PERFORMANCE

The 14 non-manufacturing industries reported growth in May — listed in order — are: Wholesale Trade; Mining; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Construction; Retail Trade; Management of Companies & Support Services; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Transportation & Warehousing; Public Administration; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Accommodation & Food Services; Finance & Insurance; Utilities; and Other Services. The only industry reporting a decrease is Information.

WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING

  • “Since the last report, our foil lid supplier stated that the tariff on aluminum has caused supply interruptions and higher costs. A price increase was instituted by the supplier.” (Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting)
  • “Material prices have been difficult to predict this year, and suppliers have struggled to hold prices for any extended period on quotes, specifically on lumber and lumber-related products. The instability has proven frustrating, but a larger problem is that we are starting to see longer lead times in many of the same areas that could start impacting timelines if they continue to get worse as we get into the main building season.” (Construction)
  • “After a challenging 2017 that ended strong, 2018 is off to a good start. Volume from existing clients as well as new sales are up, although the growth is marginal. May is showing a continuation of the monthly growth when measured over [the] previous year, leading to optimism for the rest of 2018.” (Management of Companies & Support Services)
  • “The trade discussions with NAFTA, Korea and the European Union will have critical impacts on our spend relating to steel products. Also, the potential of the U.S. pulling out of the Iran nuclear deal could push crude prices higher.” (Mining)
  • “Business is starting to increase. We have spent two years reducing our inventories to a level to support the current business climate. Now the uptick is faster than anticipated and supply is out of alignment with demand, which is causing many stockouts and shortages, and the need to expedite inventory. In shipping, we still [are] experiencing a shortage of domestic trucking resources (especially flat beds) and international shortage of flat racks. We [are] working to minimize the impact of the tariff on steel and aluminum.” (Other Services)
  • “Oil price stabilization in the (US) $60 to $70 per barrel [is] having a positive impact on hiring, both contract labor and direct employees, in the oil and gas industry and supporting industries.” (Professional, Scientific & Technical Services)
  • “Shortage of qualified labor and services personnel.” (Public Administration)
  • “Sales over the last month have been very strong. We are still struggling with the fluctuation in commodity costs and the weakening U.S. dollar.” (Retail Trade)
  • “The supply chain is shuttering because of a lack of drivers and equipment causing delays in multiple modes of transportation. The activity to adjust to this is not causing stockouts yet, and we are increasing inventory levels in anticipation of worsening conditions.” (Wholesale Trade)

ISM® NON-MANUFACTURING SURVEY RESULTS AT A GLANCE
COMPARISON OF ISM® NON-MANUFACTURING AND ISM® MANUFACTURING SURVEYS*
MAY 2018

  Non-Manufacturing Manufacturing
Index Series
Index
May
Series
Index
Apr
Percent
Point
Change
Direction Rate
of
Change
Trend**
(Months)
Series
Index
May
Series
Index
Apr
Percent
Point
Change
NMI®/PMI® 58.6 56.8 +1.8 Growing Faster 100 58.7 57.3 +1.4
Business Activity/Production 61.3 59.1 +2.2 Growing Faster 106 61.5 57.2 +4.3
New Orders 60.5 60.0 +0.5 Growing Faster 88 63.7 61.2 +2.5
Employment 54.1 53.6 +0.5 Growing Faster 51 56.3 54.2 +2.1
Supplier Deliveries 58.5 54.5 +4.0 Slowing Faster 29 62.0 61.1 +0.9
Inventories 57.5 57.0 +0.5 Growing Faster 4 50.2 52.9 -2.7
Prices 64.3 61.8 +2.5 Increasing Faster 27 79.5 79.3 -0.2
Backlog of Orders 60.5 52.0 +8.5 Growing Faster 5 63.5 62.0 +1.5
New Export Orders 57.5 61.5 -4.0 Growing Slower 16 55.6 57.7 -2.1
Imports 54.0 54.5 -0.5 Growing Slower 3 54.1 57.8 -3.7
Inventory Sentiment 61.0 60.0 +1.0 Too High Faster 252 N/A N/A N/A
Customers' Inventories N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 39.6 44.3 -4.7
Overall Economy Growing Faster 105
Non-Manufacturing Sector Growing Faster 100

*Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® data is seasonally adjusted for the Business Activity, New Orders, Prices and Employment Indexes. Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® data is seasonally adjusted for New Orders, Production, Employment and Supplier Deliveries.

**Number of months moving in current direction.


 

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